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Expectations, credibility, and disinflation in a small macroeconomic model

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  • Chan Guk Huh
  • Kevin J. Lansing

Abstract

A study of the effects of expectations and central bank credibility on the economy's dynamic transition path during a disinflation. Using a version of the Fuhrer-Moore model, it compares simulations under different specifications that vary according to the way expectations are formed and the degree of central bank credibility.

Suggested Citation

  • Chan Guk Huh & Kevin J. Lansing, 1997. "Expectations, credibility, and disinflation in a small macroeconomic model," Working Papers (Old Series) 9713, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcwp:9713
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    3. Kozicki, Sharon & Tinsley, P.A., 2005. "What do you expect? Imperfect policy credibility and tests of the expectations hypothesis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 421-447, March.
    4. Kevin J. Lansing, 2000. "Learning about a shift in trend output: implications for monetary policy and inflation," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    5. Kevin Lansing, 2009. "Time Varying U.S. Inflation Dynamics and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 12(2), pages 304-326, April.
    6. Erceg, Christopher J. & Levin, Andrew T., 2003. "Imperfect credibility and inflation persistence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 915-944, May.
    7. Coenen, Gunter & Wieland, Volker, 2005. "A small estimated euro area model with rational expectations and nominal rigidities," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(5), pages 1081-1104, July.
    8. Xian Zheng, 2015. "Expectation, volatility and liquidity in the housing market," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(37), pages 4020-4035, August.
    9. James Bullard & Stefano Eusepi, 2005. "Did the Great Inflation Occur Despite Policymaker Commitment to a Taylor Rule?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(2), pages 324-359, April.
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    13. Moons, Cindy & Garretsen, Harry & van Aarle, Bas & Fornero, Jorge, 2007. "Monetary policy in the New-Keynesian model: An application to the Euro Area," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 879-902.
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    15. Chan Guk Huh & Kevin J. Lansing, 1998. "Federal Reserve credibility and inflation scares," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 3-16.
    16. Bomfim, Antulio N & Rudebusch, Glenn D, 2000. "Opportunistic and Deliberate Disinflation under Imperfect Credibility," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 32(4), pages 707-721, November.
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    19. Gibbs, Christopher G. & Kulish, Mariano, 2017. "Disinflations in a model of imperfectly anchored expectations," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 157-174.
    20. Dai, Meixing & Sidiropoulos, Moïse & Spyromitros, Eleftherios, 2008. "Monetary policy transparency and inflation persistence in a small open economy," MPRA Paper 13829, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Mar 2009.
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    23. Peter S. Spiro, 2003. "Evidence on inflation expectations from Canadian real return bonds," Macroeconomics 0312004, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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