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Forward-looking behavior and optimal discretionary monetary policy

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  • Kevin J. Lansing
  • Bharat Trehan

Abstract

This paper derives a closed-form solution for the optimal discretionary monetary policy in a small macroeconomic model that allows for varying degrees of forward-looking behavior. We show that a more forward-looking aggregate demand equation serves to attenuate the response to inflation and the output gap in the optimal interest rate rule. In contrast, a more forward-looking real interest rate equation serves to magnify the response to both variables. A more forward-looking Phillips curve serves to attenuate the response to inflation but magnifies the response to the output gap. ; Original title: Forward-looking behavior and the optimality of the Taylor rule.

Suggested Citation

  • Kevin J. Lansing & Bharat Trehan, 2003. "Forward-looking behavior and optimal discretionary monetary policy," Working Paper Series 2001-03, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedfwp:2001-03
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    Cited by:

    1. Víctor Olivo, 2005. "Interest Rate Rules vs. Money Growth Rules: Some Theoretical Issues and an Empirical Application for Venezuela," Money Affairs, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA, vol. 0(1), pages 57-82, January-J.
    2. Kevin Lansing, 2009. "Time Varying U.S. Inflation Dynamics and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 12(2), pages 304-326, April.
    3. Petra Gerlach-Kristen & Barbara Rudolf, 2010. "Macroeconomic and interest rate volatility under alternative monetary operating procedures," Working Papers 2010-12, Swiss National Bank.
    4. Ulf Söderström & Paul Söderlind & Anders Vredin, 2005. "New‐Keynesian Models and Monetary Policy: A Re‐examination of the Stylized Facts," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 107(3), pages 521-546, September.
    5. Solange Berstein & Rodrigo Fuentes, 2005. "Concentration and Price Rigidity: Evidence for the Deposit Market in Chile," Money Affairs, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA, vol. 0(1), pages 1-22, January-J.
    6. Travaglini, Guido, 2007. "The U.S. Dynamic Taylor Rule With Multiple Breaks, 1984-2001," MPRA Paper 3419, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 15 Jun 2007.
    7. M. Dossche & G. Everaert, 2005. "Measuring inflation persistence: a structural time series approach," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 05/340, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
    8. Ramzi Drissi, 2014. "Robust Monetary Policy in An Uncertain Economic Environment: Evidence from Tunisian Economy," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 4(7), pages 969-986, July.
    9. Antonio Moreno, 2004. "The Feds Monetary Policy Rule: Past, Present and Future," Faculty Working Papers 02/04, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
    10. Rohan Longmore & Wayne Robinson, 2005. "Modelling and Forecasting Exchange Rate Dynamics in Jamaica: an Application of Asymmetric Volatility Models," Money Affairs, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, CEMLA, vol. 0(1), pages 23-56, January-J.
    11. Richard Dennis, 2004. "Inferring Policy Objectives from Economic Outcomes," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 66(s1), pages 735-764, September.
    12. Gerlach-Kristen, Petra & Rudolf, Barbara, 2010. "Financial shocks and the maturity of the monetary policy rate," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 107(3), pages 333-337, June.

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