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Revealed Preference of the Federal Reserve: Using Inverse-Control Theory to Interpret the Policy Equation of a Vector Autoregression

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  • Salemi, Michael K

Abstract

How close is observed Federal Reserve policy to policy that would be optimal in the control theory sense? This question is addressed by using an inverse control methodology. Federal Reserve policy is characterized by a feedback equation for either changes in the interest rate or money stock. Optimal policy is characterized by solution of the Ricatti equation. Parameters are estimated that characterize the relative importance to the Fed of stabilizing output, inflation, interest rates, and money growth. The period of study is 1947 through 1992. Evidence is uncovered that policy is optimal within distinct regimes.

Suggested Citation

  • Salemi, Michael K, 1995. "Revealed Preference of the Federal Reserve: Using Inverse-Control Theory to Interpret the Policy Equation of a Vector Autoregression," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(4), pages 419-433, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:bes:jnlbes:v:13:y:1995:i:4:p:419-33
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    Cited by:

    1. William T. Gavin & Finn E. Kydland, 2000. "The nominal facts and the October 1979 policy change," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Nov, pages 39-61.
    2. Lansing, Kevin J. & Trehan, Bharat, 2003. "Forward-looking behavior and optimal discretionary monetary policy," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 81(2), pages 249-256, November.
    3. Chatelain, Jean-Bernard & Ralf, Kirsten, 2017. "Can we Identify the Fed's Preferences?," EconStor Preprints 149993, ZBW - German National Library of Economics.
    4. Ozlale, Umit, 2003. "Price stability vs. output stability: tales of federal reserve administrations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(9), pages 1595-1610, July.
    5. William T. Gavin & Finn E. Kydland, 1999. "Endogenous Money Supply and the Business Cycle," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 2(2), pages 347-369, April.
    6. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2002. "Squeezing the Interest Rate Smoothing Weight with a Hybrid Expectations Model," Macroeconomics 0211006, EconWPA.
    7. Grégory Levieuge & Yannick Lucotte, 2014. "A Simple Empirical Measure of Central Banks' Conservatism," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 81(2), pages 409-434, October.
    8. Castelnuovo Efrem, 2006. "The Fed's Preference for Policy Rate Smoothing: Overestimation Due to Misspecification?," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(2), pages 1-22, August.
    9. Richard Dennis, 2004. "Specifying and estimating New Keynesian models with instrument rules and optimal monetary policies," Working Paper Series 2004-17, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    10. Vanderhart, Peter G., 2000. "The Federal Reserve's Reaction Function under Greenspan: An Ordinal Probit Analysis," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 631-644, October.
    11. repec:sbe:breart:v:29:y:2009:i:1:a:2697 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Fernandez, Linda, 1997. "Estimation of Wastewater Treatment Objectives through Maximum Entropy," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 293-308, March.
    13. Richard Dennis, 2006. "The policy preferences of the US Federal Reserve," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(1), pages 55-77.
    14. Alvaro Aguiar & Manuel M.F. Martins, 2005. "The Preferences of the Euro Area Monetary Policy-maker," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(2), pages 221-250, June.
    15. Philip Arestis & Michail Karoglou & Kostas Mouratidis, 2016. "Monetary Policy Preferences of the EMU and the UK," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 84(4), pages 528-550, July.

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