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Monetary policy with uncertain parameters

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  • Söderström, Ulf

    (Research Department, Central Bank of Sweden)

Abstract

In a simple dynamic macroeconomic model, it is shown that uncertainty about structural parameters does not necessarily lead to more cautious monetary policy, refining the accepted wisdom concerning the effects of parameter uncertainty on optimal policy. In particular, when there is uncertainty about the persistence of inflation, it is optimal for the central bank to respond more aggressively to shocks than if the parameter were known with certainty, since the central bank wants to avoid bad outcomes in the future. Uncertainty about other parameters, in contrast, acts to dampen the policy response.

Suggested Citation

  • Söderström, Ulf, 1999. "Monetary policy with uncertain parameters," Working Paper Series 83, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  • Handle: RePEc:hhs:rbnkwp:0083
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Giovanni Di Bartolomeo & Francesco Giuli & Marco Manzo, 2009. "Policy uncertainty, symbiosis, and the optimal fiscal and monetary conservativeness," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 36(4), pages 461-474, November.
    2. Hefeker, Carsten, 2004. "Uncertainty, Wage Setting and Decision Making in a Monetary Union," HWWA Discussion Papers 272, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWA).
    3. Philip Arestis & Alexander Mihailov, 2011. "Classifying Monetary Economics: Fields And Methods From Past To Future," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(4), pages 769-800, September.
    4. Morelli, Pierluigi & Seghezza, Elena, 2021. "Why was the ECB’s reaction to Covid-19 crisis faster than after the 2008 financial crash?," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 1-14.
    5. Jan F. Qvigstad, 2006. "When does an interest rate path “look good”? Criteria for an appropriate future interest rate path," Working Paper 2006/05, Norges Bank.
    6. Lars E. O. Svensson, 2001. "Price Stability as a Target for Monetary Policy: Defining and Maintaining Price Stability," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Deutsche Bundesbank (ed.), The Monetary Transmission Process, chapter 2, pages 60-111, Palgrave Macmillan.
    7. van der Ploeg, Frederick, 2004. "Prudent Monetary Policy: Applications of Cautious LQG Control and Prediction," CEPR Discussion Papers 4222, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    8. Gadi Barlevy, 2011. "Robustness and Macroeconomic Policy," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 3(1), pages 1-24, September.
    9. Nessen, Marianne, 2002. "Targeting inflation over the short, medium and long term," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 313-329, September.
    10. Eugenio Domingo Solans, 2000. "How should monetary policymakers respond to the new challenges of global economic integration? : commentary," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 277-287.
    11. Richard Mash, 2000. "The Time Inconsistency of Monetary Policy with Inflation Persistence," Economics Series Working Papers 15, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    12. Carlo A. Favero, "undated". "Parameters´ Instability, Model Uncertainty and Optimal Monetary Policy," Working Papers 196, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    13. Ippei Fujiwara & Naoko Hara & Naohisa Hirakata & Takeshi Kimura & Shinichiro Watanabe, 2007. "Japanese Monetary Policy during the Collapse of the Bubble Economy: A View of Policymaking under Uncertainty," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 25(2), pages 89-128, November.
    14. Martin Mandler, 2010. "Explaining ECB and FED interest rate correlation: Economic interdependence and optimal monetary policy," MAGKS Papers on Economics 201025, Philipps-Universität Marburg, Faculty of Business Administration and Economics, Department of Economics (Volkswirtschaftliche Abteilung).
    15. Gilbert Cette & Christian Pfister, 2004. "Challenges of the “New Economy” for Monetary Policy," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 8, pages 27-36, Spring.
    16. Philip R. Lane, 2002. "Monetary-Fiscal Interactions in an Uncertain World: Lessons for European Policymakers," Trinity Economics Papers 200213, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    17. Christopher Martin & Costas Milas, 2004. "Uncertainty and UK Monetary Policy," Public Policy Discussion Papers 04-11, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University.
    18. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2002. "Squeezing the Interest Rate Smoothing Weight with a Hybrid Expectations Model," Macroeconomics 0211006, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Carsten Hefeker, 2006. "EMU Enlargement, Policy Uncertainty and Economic Reforms," CESifo Working Paper Series 1767, CESifo.
    20. J. Tetlow, Robert & von zur Muehlen, Peter, 2001. "Robust monetary policy with misspecified models: Does model uncertainty always call for attenuated policy?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(6-7), pages 911-949, June.
    21. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2003. "Taylor Rules and Interest Rate Smoothing in the US and EMU," Macroeconomics 0303002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. Traficante, Guido, 2012. "Uncertain potential output: implications for monetary policy in small open economy," Dynare Working Papers 22, CEPREMAP.
    23. Siok Kun, Sek, 2009. "The impacts of economic structures on the performance of simple policy rules in a small open economy," MPRA Paper 25065, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    24. Stéphane Goutte & David Guerreiro & Bilel Sanhaji & Sophie Saglio & Julien Chevallier, 2019. "International Financial Markets," Post-Print halshs-02183053, HAL.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Optimal monetary policy; parameter uncertainty; Brainard conservatism principle; interest rate smoothing;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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