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Should central banks be more aggressive?

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  • Söderström, Ulf

    () (Research Department, Central Bank of Sweden)

Abstract

Simple models of monetary policy often imply optimal policy behavior that is considerably more aggressive than what is commonly observed. This paper argues that such counterfactual implications are due to model restrictions and a failure to account for multiplicative parameter uncertainty, rather than to policymakers being too cautious in their implementation of policy. Comparing a restricted and an unrestricted version of the same empirical model, the unrestricted version leads to less volatility in optimal policy, and, taking parameter uncertainty into account, to policy paths very close to actual Federal Reserve policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Söderström, Ulf, 1999. "Should central banks be more aggressive?," Working Paper Series 84, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  • Handle: RePEc:hhs:rbnkwp:0084
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2002. "Squeezing the Interest Rate Smoothing Weight with a Hybrid Expectations Model," Macroeconomics 0211006, EconWPA.
    2. Efrem Castelnuovo, 2003. "Taylor Rules and Interest Rate Smoothing in the US and EMU," Macroeconomics 0303002, EconWPA.
    3. Troy Davig & Jeffrey R. Gerlach, 2006. "State-Dependent Stock Market Reactions to Monetary Policy," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(4), December.
    4. Nessen, Marianne, 2002. "Targeting inflation over the short, medium and long term," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 313-329, September.
    5. Svensson, Lars E O, 1999. "Price Stability as a Target for Monetary Policy: Defining and Maintaining Price Stability," CEPR Discussion Papers 2196, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2006. "Monetary Policy Inertia: Fact or Fiction?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(4), December.
    7. Rudebusch, Glenn D. & Svensson, Lars E. O., 2002. "Eurosystem monetary targeting: Lessons from U.S. data," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 417-442, March.
    8. J. Tetlow, Robert & von zur Muehlen, Peter, 2001. "Robust monetary policy with misspecified models: Does model uncertainty always call for attenuated policy?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(6-7), pages 911-949, June.
    9. Gino Cateau, 2005. "Monetary Policy under Model and Data-Parameter Uncertainty," Staff Working Papers 05-6, Bank of Canada.
    10. Carlo A. Favero, "undated". "Parameters´ Instability, Model Uncertainty and Optimal Monetary Policy," Working Papers 196, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Optimal monetary policy; parameter uncertainty; interest rate smoothing;

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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