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The Phillips curve is alive and well


  • Jeffrey C. Fuhrer


Rumors of the death of the Phillips curve appear to have been greatly exaggerated. In fact, the Phillips curve is alive and well, and living in a good number of (although certainly not all) widely used macroeconometric models. The author takes the view that the primary reason for its longevity is that the Phillips curve has been an extremely robust empirical relationship, showing little or no sign of instability over the past 35 years.> He examines an array of empiracal evidence and finds that the Phillips curve has exhibited remarkable stability, even across data for what must be the most dramatic shift in monetary policy regime since World War II. To outward appearances, at leasat, the Phillips curve is as structural a relationship as macroeconomists have ever had at their disposal.

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  • Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 1995. "The Phillips curve is alive and well," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Mar, pages 41-56.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedbne:y:1995:i:mar:p:41-56

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Kim B. Clark & Lawrence H. Summers, 1979. "Labor Market Dynamics and Unemployemnt: A Reconsideration," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 10(1), pages 13-72.
    2. Blanchard, Olivier J, 1984. "The Lucas Critique and the Volcker Deflation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 74(2), pages 211-215, May.
    3. George L. Perry, 1970. "Changing Labor Markets and Inflation," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 1(3), pages 411-448.
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    Phillips curve;


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