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Targeting Inflation over the Short, Medium and Long Term

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  • Nessén, Marianne

    (Research Department, Central Bank of Sweden)

Abstract

A central bank pursuing the policy of inflation targeting aims to keep inflation as close as possible to a pre-announced value. But which 'inflation' should this be? Quarterly, annual, biennial? In theoretical models it is typically inflation during one period. We analyze how changing the period over which the inflation rate is defined - i.e. changing central bank preferences - affects optimal monetary policy. It is shown that when targeting inflation is the sole objective of the central bank, more aggressive monetary policy results; but when output stabilization is also a concern, a 'longer-term view' typically leads to a more cautious conduct of monetary policy and less variability in output. The conditions under which inflation targeting in effect becomes price level targeting are also examined.

Suggested Citation

  • Nessén, Marianne, 1999. "Targeting Inflation over the Short, Medium and Long Term," Working Paper Series 98, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:rbnkwp:0098
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Orphanides, Athanasios & Wieland, Volker, 2000. "Inflation zone targeting," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(7), pages 1351-1387, June.
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    3. Julio J. Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1999. "Interest Rate Rules in an Estimated Sticky Price Model," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 57-126, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    5. Ulf Söderström, 2002. "Monetary Policy with Uncertain Parameters," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 104(1), pages 125-145, March.
    6. Michael Woodford, 1999. "Optimal Monetary Policy Inertia," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 67(s1), pages 1-35.
    7. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2001. "Is The Fed Too Timid? Monetary Policy In An Uncertain World," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(2), pages 203-217, May.
    8. Andrew G Haldane, 1997. "Designing Inflation Targets," RBA Annual Conference Volume (Discontinued), in: Philip Lowe (ed.),Monetary Policy and Inflation Targeting, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    9. Sack, Brian, 2000. "Does the fed act gradually? A VAR analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 229-256, August.
    10. Nessen, Marianne & Vestin, David, 2005. "Average Inflation Targeting," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(5), pages 837-863, October.
    11. Michael Woodford, 1999. "Optimal monetary policy inertia," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    12. John C. Williams, 2003. "Simple rules for monetary policy," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 1-12.
    13. Svensson, Lars E O, 1999. " Inflation Targeting: Some Extensions," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 101(3), pages 337-361, September.
    14. Soderstrom, Ulf, 2002. " Monetary Policy with Uncertain Parameters," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 104(1), pages 125-145.
    15. Brian P. Sack, 1998. "Does the Fed act gradually? a VAR analysis," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-17, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    16. Vestin, David, 2000. "Price-level Targeting versus Inflation Targeting in a Forward-looking Model," Working Paper Series 106, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    17. John B. Taylor, 1999. "Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number tayl99-1, March.
    18. Söderström, Ulf, 1999. "Should central banks be more aggressive?," Working Paper Series 84, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    19. Batini, Nicoletta & Yates, Anthony, 2003. "Hybrid Inflation and Price-Level Targeting," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(3), pages 283-300, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Orphanides, Athanasios, 2004. "Monetary Policy Rules, Macroeconomic Stability, and Inflation: A View from the Trenches," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(2), pages 151-175, April.
    2. Orphanides, Athanasios, 2003. "Historical monetary policy analysis and the Taylor rule," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(5), pages 983-1022, July.
    3. Smets, Frank, 2000. "What horizon for price stability," Working Paper Series 0024, European Central Bank.
    4. Nessen, Marianne & Vestin, David, 2005. "Average Inflation Targeting," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(5), pages 837-863, October.
    5. Kirdan Lees, 2003. "The stabilisation problem: the case of New Zealand," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2003/08, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    6. Orphanides, Athanasios, 2004. "Monetary Policy Rules, Macroeconomic Stability, and Inflation: A View from the Trenches," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 36(2), pages 151-175, April.
    7. Richard Mash, 2003. "New Keynesian Microfoundations Revisited: A Calvo-Taylor-Rule-of-Thumb Model and Optimal Monetary Policy Delegation," Economics Series Working Papers 174, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    8. Smets, Frank, 2000. "What horizon for price stability," Working Paper Series 24, European Central Bank.
    9. Lees, Kirdan & Warburton, Sam, 2010. "A happy "half way-house"? Medium term inflation targeting in New Zealand," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 819-839, September.
    10. Dillén, Hans, 2002. "Inflation Targeting and the Dynamics of the Transmission Mechanism," Working Paper Series 141, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden), revised 01 Jul 2004.
    11. Söderström, Ulf & Söderlind, Paul & Vredin, Anders, 2002. "Can a Calibrated New-Keynesian Model of Monetary Policy Fit the Facts?," Working Paper Series 140, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    12. Teruyoshi Kobayashi, 2004. "Hybrid Inflation‐Price‐Level Targeting in an Economy With Output Persistence," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 51(5), pages 641-653, November.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation targeting; Price level targeting; Optimal monetary policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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