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Average Inflation Targeting

  • Nessén, Marianne

    ()

    (Research Department, Central Bank of Sweden)

  • Vestin, David

    ()

    (Institute for International Economic Studies)

The analysis of this paper demonstrates that when the Phillips curve has forward-looking components, a goal for average inflation - i.e. targeting a j-period average of one-period inflation rates - will cause inflation expectations to change in a way that improves the short-run trade-off faced by the monetary policymaker. Average inflation targeting is thus an example of a 'modified' loss function, which when implemented ina discretionary fashion results in more efficient outcomes from the standpoint of the true social objective (inflation targeting under commitment), than the discretionary pursuit of the true objective itself. In purely forward-looking models, average inflation targeting is dominated by price level targeting. But we also demonstrate that in models where the Phillips curve has both forward- and backward-looking components, there are cases when the average inflation target provides more efficient outcomes than both 'ordinary' one-period inflation targeting and price level targeting.

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Paper provided by Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden) in its series Working Paper Series with number 119.

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Length: 45 pages
Date of creation: 01 Dec 2000
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, 2005, pages 837-864.
Handle: RePEc:hhs:rbnkwp:0119
Contact details of provider: Postal:
Sveriges Riksbank, SE-103 37 Stockholm, Sweden

Phone: 08 - 787 00 00
Fax: 08-21 05 31
Web page: http://www.riksbank.com/
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  1. Clarida, R. & Gali, J. & Gertler, M., 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Working Papers 99-13, C.V. Starr Center for Applied Economics, New York University.
  2. Michael Woodford, 1999. "Commentary : how should monetary policy be conducted in an era of price stability?," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 277-316.
  3. Svensson, Lars E.O., 1997. "Price Level Targeting vs. Inflation Targeting: A Free Lunch?," Seminar Papers 614, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
  4. Woodford, M., 1999. "Optimal Monetary Policy Inertia.," Papers 666, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  5. Lars E.O. Svensson & Michael Woodford, 2004. "Implementing Optimal Policy through Inflation-Forecast Targeting," NBER Chapters, in: The Inflation-Targeting Debate, pages 19-92 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Henrik Jensen, 2002. "Targeting Nominal Income Growth or Inflation?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(4), pages 928-956, September.
  7. Vestin, David, 2000. "Price-level Targeting versus Inflation Targeting in a Forward-looking Model," Working Paper Series 106, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  8. Hallsten, Kerstin, 2000. "An Expectations-Augmented Phillips Curve in an Open Economy," Working Paper Series 108, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  9. Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
  10. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2000. "Assessing nominal income rules for monetary policy with model and data uncertainty," Working Paper Series 2000-03, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  11. Nessén, Marianne, 1999. "Targeting Inflation over the Short, Medium and Long Term," Working Paper Series 98, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  12. Jeff Fuhrer & George Moore, 1995. "Inflation Persistence," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 110(1), pages 127-159.
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  14. Soderlind, Paul, 1999. "Solution and estimation of RE macromodels with optimal policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 43(4-6), pages 813-823, April.
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  16. Robert Dittmar & William T. Gavin, 2000. "What do New-Keynesian Phillips Curves imply for price-level targeting?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 21-30.
  17. Backus, David & Driffill, John, 1986. "The Consistency of Optimal Policy in Stochastic Rational Expectations Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 124, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  18. Steinsson, Jon, 2003. "Optimal monetary policy in an economy with inflation persistence," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(7), pages 1425-1456, October.
  19. Smets, Frank, 2000. "What horizon for price stability," Working Paper Series 0024, European Central Bank.
  20. Julio J. Rotemberg, 1982. "Monopolistic Price Adjustment and Aggregate Output," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 49(4), pages 517-531.
  21. McCallum, Bennett T & Nelson, Edward, 2001. "Timeless Perspective Vs Discretionary Monetary Policy in Forward-Looking Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 2752, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  22. Julio Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1997. "An Optimization-Based Econometric Framework for the Evaluation of Monetary Policy," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1997, Volume 12, pages 297-361 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  23. Roberts, John M, 1995. "New Keynesian Economics and the Phillips Curve," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(4), pages 975-84, November.
  24. Mervyn A. King, 1999. "Challenges for monetary policy : new and old," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 11-57.
  25. Michael T. Kiley, 1998. "Monetary policy under neoclassical and New-Keynesian Phillips Curves, with an application to price level and inflation targeting," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-27, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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