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Forward-looking behavior and optimal discretionary monetary policy

  • Lansing, Kevin J.
  • Trehan, Bharat

This paper derives a closed-form solution for the optimal discretionary monetary policy in a small macroeconomic model that allows for varying degrees of forward-looking behavior. We show that a more forward-looking aggregate demand equation serves to attenuate the response to inflation and the output gap in the optimal interest rate rule. In contrast, a more forward-looking real interest rate equation serves to magnify the response to both variables. A more forward-looking Phillips curve serves to attenuate the response to inflation but magnifies the response to the output gap. ; Original title: Forward-looking behavior and the optimality of the Taylor rule.

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File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/B6V84-49D2FTW-2/2/974191945e0f18f3cb7080119dd40cf5
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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Economics Letters.

Volume (Year): 81 (2003)
Issue (Month): 2 (November)
Pages: 249-256

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Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:81:y:2003:i:2:p:249-256
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolet

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  1. Svensson, Lars E O, 1996. "Inflation Forecast Targeting: Implementing and Monitoring Inflation Targets," CEPR Discussion Papers 1511, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Glenn Rudebusch & Lars E.O. Svensson, 1999. "Policy Rules for Inflation Targeting," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 203-262 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Laurence Ball, 1997. "Efficient Rules for Monetary Policy," NBER Working Papers 5952, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2000. "Assessing nominal income rules for monetary policy with model and data uncertainty," Working Paper Series 2000-03, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  5. N. Gregory Mankiw & Ricardo Reis, 2001. "Sticky information versus sticky prices: a proposal to replace the New-Keynesian Phillips curve," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Jun.
  6. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1999. "Is the Fed too timid? Monetary policy in an uncertain world," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 99-05, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  7. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
  8. Eijffinger, S.C.W. & Schaling, E. & Verhagen, W.H., 1998. "The Term Structure of Interest Rates and Inflation Forecast Targeting," Discussion Paper 1998-85, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
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