IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/fip/fednep/y1998ijunp1-14nv.4no.2.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Policy rules and targets: framing the central banker's problem

Author

Listed:
  • Stephen G. Cecchetti

Abstract

The author presents an analytical framework for the formulation of a central bank policy rule and examines some conceptual issues relating to the current debate over the effectiveness of such rules. In discussing the move by many central banks to adopt a price-level or inflation rate target--the basis for one type of rule--he suggests that central banks are implicitly changing the relative importance they attach to the goals of price and output stability. Using 1984-95 data, he shows that an effort to decrease inflation variability modestly could cause output to deviate significantly from its optimal path. The essay also addresses the influence of various types of uncertainty on policymaking, the possible justifications for interest rate smoothing, and the consequences of the fact that nominal interest rates cannot fall below zero.

Suggested Citation

  • Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1998. "Policy rules and targets: framing the central banker's problem," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 4(Jun), pages 1-14.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fednep:y:1998:i:jun:p:1-14:n:v.4no.2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/epr/98v04n2/9806cecc.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/epr/98v04n2/9806cecc.html
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lars E. O. Svensson, 1999. "Inflation Targeting: Some Extensions," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 101(3), pages 337-361, September.
    2. Laurence Ball, 1999. "Efficient Rules for Monetary Policy," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(1), pages 63-83, April.
    3. George A. Akerlof & William R. Dickens & George L. Perry, 1996. "The Macroeconomics of Low Inflation," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(1), pages 1-76.
    4. Martin S. Feldstein, 1997. "The Costs and Benefits of Going from Low Inflation to Price Stability," NBER Chapters, in: Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy, pages 123-166, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. McCallum, Bennett T., 1999. "Issues in the design of monetary policy rules," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 23, pages 1483-1530, Elsevier.
    6. Erica Groshen & Mark Schweitzer, 1999. "Identifying Inflation's Grease and Sand Effects in the Labor Market," NBER Chapters, in: The Costs and Benefits of Price Stability, pages 273-314, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Cukierman, Alex & Kalaitzidakis, Pantelis & Summers, Lawrence H. & Webb, Steven B., 1993. "Central bank independence, growth, investment, and real rates," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 95-140, December.
    8. Alan S. Blinder, 1997. "Distinguished Lecture on Economics in Government: What Central Bankers Could Learn from Academics--And Vice Versa," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(2), pages 3-19, Spring.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Philip Arestis & Kostas Mouratidis, 2004. "Credibility of European Monetary System Interest Rate Policies: A Markov Regime‐Switching Approach," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 72(1), pages 1-23, January.
    2. WenShwo Fang & Stephen M. Miller & ChunShen Lee, 2008. "Cross‐Country Evidence On Output Growth Volatility: Nonstationary Variance And Garch Models," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 55(4), pages 509-541, September.
    3. Vittorio Corbo & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2001. "Inflation Targeting in Latin America," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 105, Central Bank of Chile.
    4. Ulf Söderström, 2002. "Monetary Policy with Uncertain Parameters," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 104(1), pages 125-145, March.
    5. Sergio Destefanis, 2003. "Measuring macroeconomic performance through a non-parametric Taylor curve," CSEF Working Papers 95, Centre for Studies in Economics and Finance (CSEF), University of Naples, Italy.
    6. Philip Arestis & Kostas Mouratidis, 2004. "Is There a Trade‐Off Between Inflation Variability and Output‐Gap Variability in the EMU Countries?," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 51(5), pages 691-706, November.
    7. Ben Martin, 1999. "Caution and gradualism in monetary policy under uncertainty," Bank of England working papers 105, Bank of England.
    8. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Michael Ehrmann, 2002. "Does Inflation Targeting Increase Output Volatility?: An International Comparison of Policymakers' Preferences and Outcomes," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Norman Loayza & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series (ed.),Monetary Policy: Rules and Transmission Mechanisms, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 9, pages 247-274, Central Bank of Chile.
    9. Svensson, Lars E. O., 2000. "Open-economy inflation targeting," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 155-183, February.
    10. M. D. Hayford & A. G. Malliaris, 2005. "How did the Fed react to the 1990s stock market bubble? Evidence from an extended Taylor rule," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Economic Uncertainty, Instabilities And Asset Bubbles Selected Essays, chapter 14, pages 223-232, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    11. Sharon Kozicki, 1999. "How useful are Taylor rules for monetary policy?," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 84(Q II), pages 5-33.
    12. Söderström, Ulf, 1999. "Should central banks be more aggressive?," Working Paper Series 84, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    13. Robert Dittmar & William T. Gavin & Finn E. Kydland, 1999. "Price-level uncertainty and inflation targeting," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 81(Jul), pages 23-34.
    14. Frédérique SIBI, 2010. "Stability of Final Objective of the European Monetary Authorities," EcoMod2004 330600129, EcoMod.
    15. Canofari, Paolo & Di Bartolomeo, Giovanni, 2017. "Regime switches under policy uncertainty in monetary unions," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 124-132.
    16. Marc-Alexandre Sénégas, 2002. "La politique monétaire face à l'incertitude : un survol méthodologique des contributions relatives à la zone euro," Revue d'Économie Financière, Programme National Persée, vol. 65(1), pages 177-200.
    17. Warwick J. McKibbin & Kanhaiya Singh, 2000. "Issues in the Choice of a Monetary Regime for India," ASARC Working Papers 2000-01, The Australian National University, Australia South Asia Research Centre.
    18. Kenneth N. Kuttner & Adam S. Posen, 1999. "Does talk matter after all? Inflation targeting and central bank behavior," Staff Reports 88, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    19. J. Kilponen & Marc-Alexandre Sénégas & J. Vilmunen, 2006. "Bayesian versus robust control approach towards parameter uncertainty in monetary policymaking: how close are the outcomes? Some illustrating evidence from the EMU economies," Post-Print hal-00150522, HAL.
    20. International Monetary Fund, 2008. "Is Monetary Policy Effective When Credit is Low?," IMF Working Papers 2008/288, International Monetary Fund.
    21. Ronald G. Bodkin & Angel Enrique Neder, 2003. "Monetary Policy Targeting in Argentina and Canada in the 1990s: A Comparison, Some Contrasts, and a Tentative Evaluation," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 29(3), pages 339-358, Summer.
    22. William T. Gavin, 2000. "Controlling inflation after Bretton Woods: an analysis based on policy objectives," Working Papers 2000-007, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1997. "Central Bank Policy Rules: Conceptual Issues and Practical Considerations," NBER Working Papers 6306, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1999. "Inflation targeting as a monetary policy rule," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 607-654, June.
    3. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
    4. Rotondi, Zeno, 2000. "Time consistent monetary policy reconsidered: may we have a deflationary bias too?," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 0004, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
    5. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2002. "Assessing Nominal Income Rules for Monetary Policy with Model and Data Uncertainty," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(479), pages 402-432, April.
    6. Akhand Akhtar Hossain, 2009. "Central Banking and Monetary Policy in the Asia-Pacific," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 12777.
    7. Lars E. O. Svensson, 1999. "Monetary policy issues for the Eurosystem," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    8. Takatoshi Ito & Frederic S. Mishkin, 2006. "Two Decades of Japanese Monetary Policy and the Deflation Problem," NBER Chapters, in: Monetary Policy with Very Low Inflation in the Pacific Rim, pages 131-1997, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Lars E. O. Svensson, 2001. "Price Stability as a Target for Monetary Policy: Defining and Maintaining Price Stability," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Deutsche Bundesbank (ed.), The Monetary Transmission Process, chapter 2, pages 60-111, Palgrave Macmillan.
    10. Stephen G. Cecchetti, 2001. "Legal Structure, Financial Structure and the Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Deutsche Bundesbank (ed.), The Monetary Transmission Process, chapter 5, pages 170-207, Palgrave Macmillan.
    11. Rudebusch, Glenn D. & Svensson, Lars E. O., 2002. "Eurosystem monetary targeting: Lessons from U.S. data," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 417-442, March.
    12. Gilbert Cette & Christian Pfister, 2004. "Challenges of the “New Economy” for Monetary Policy," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 8, pages 27-36, Spring.
    13. Andersen, Torben M., 1999. "Nominal rigidities and the optimal rate of inflation," CFS Working Paper Series 1999/08, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    14. Svensson, Lars E. O., 2000. "Open-economy inflation targeting," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 155-183, February.
    15. repec:zbw:cfswop:wp200305 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Devine, Máiréad & McCoy, Daniel, 1997. "Inflation Targeting: A Review of the Issues," Research Technical Papers 5/RT/97, Central Bank of Ireland.
    17. Frederic S. Mishkin & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2001. "One Decade of Inflation Targeting in the World: What Do We Know and What Do We Need to Know?," NBER Working Papers 8397, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Taylor, John B., 1999. "The robustness and efficiency of monetary policy rules as guidelines for interest rate setting by the European central bank," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 655-679, June.
    19. Bennett T. McCallum, "undated". "The Alleged Instability of Nominal Income Targeting," GSIA Working Papers 1998-20, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
    20. Volker Wieland, "undated". "Monetary Policy and Uncertainty about the Natural Unemployment Rate," Computing in Economics and Finance 1997 11, Society for Computational Economics.
    21. Andersen, Torben M., 2002. "Nominal rigidities and the optimal rate of inflation," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 375-389, June.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fednep:y:1998:i:jun:p:1-14:n:v.4no.2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbnyus.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Gabriella Bucciarelli (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbnyus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.