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Price-level uncertainty and inflation targeting

Author

Listed:
  • Robert Dittmar
  • William T. Gavin
  • Finn E. Kydland

Abstract

In this paper, Dittmar, Gavin and Kydland make two points about commonly proposed rules for inflation targeting. First, they argue that there is a great deal of uncertainty about the price level and inflation inherent in current proposals to target inflation. They show that the degree to which the central bank cares about the real economy can have a large impact on price level (and inflation) uncertainty. They find that the magnitudes of uncertainty that prevailed across the G-10 throughout the last four decades are the expected consequence of commonly proposed inflation-targeting regimes. Second, they show that if central banks want both to stabilize business cycle fluctuations and to achieve price stability, then it may be useful to adopt a long-term objective for the price level.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert Dittmar & William T. Gavin & Finn E. Kydland, 1999. "Price-level uncertainty and inflation targeting," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 23-34.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlrv:y:1999:i:jul:p:23-34:n:v.81no.4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    5. Glenn Rudebusch & Lars E.O. Svensson, 1999. "Policy Rules for Inflation Targeting," NBER Chapters,in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 203-262 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Brunner, Karl & Meltzer, Allan H., 1976. "The Phillips curve," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 1-18, January.
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    13. Michael T. Kiley, 1998. "Monetary policy under neoclassical and New-Keynesian Phillips Curves, with an application to price level and inflation targeting," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-27, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Michael Hatcher, 2013. "The inflation risk premium on government debt in an overlapping generations model," Working Papers 2013_17, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    2. Berument, Hakan & Yuksel, Ebru, 2007. "Effects of adopting inflation targeting regimes on inflation variability," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 375(1), pages 265-273.
    3. Hatcher, Michael C., 2011. "Comparing inflation and price-level targeting: A comprehensive review of the literature," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2011/22, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
    4. Bordo Michael D. & Dittmar Robert D & Gavin William T., 2007. "Gold, Fiat Money, and Price Stability," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-31, August.
    5. Gavin, William T. & Keen, Benjamin D. & Pakko, Michael R., 2009. "Inflation Risk And Optimal Monetary Policy," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(S1), pages 58-75, May.
    6. Batini, Nicoletta & Yates, Anthony, 2003. " Hybrid Inflation and Price-Level Targeting," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(3), pages 283-300, June.
    7. Oleksiy Kryvtsov & Malik Shukayev & Alexander Ueberfeldt, 2007. "Optimal Monetary Policy and Price Stability Over the Long-Run," Staff Working Papers 07-26, Bank of Canada.
    8. Ali M. Kutan & Josef C. Brada, 2000. "The evolution of monetary policy in transition economies," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 31-40.
    9. Douch, Mohamed & Essadam, Naceur, 2008. "Monetary policy conduct: A hybrid framework," MPRA Paper 20715, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Gomes, S. & Jacquinot, P. & Mestre, R. & Sousa, J., 2015. "Global policy at the zero lower bound in a large-scale DSGE model," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 134-153.
    11. Michael Parkin, 2009. "What is the Ideal Monetary Policy Regime? Improving the Bank of Canada's Inflation-targeting Program," C.D. Howe Institute Commentary, C.D. Howe Institute, issue 279, January.

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    Keywords

    Monetary policy ; Inflation (Finance);

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