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Monetary Regimes: Is There a Trade-Off Between Consumption and Employment Variability?

  • Matthews, Kent
  • Meenagh, David
  • Minford, Patrick
  • Webb, Bruce

Macro models generally assume away heterogeneous welfare in assessing policies. We investigate here within two aggregative models - one with a representative agent, the other a long-used forecasting model of the UK - whether allowing for differences in welfare functions (specifically between those in continuous employment and those with frequent unemployment spells) alters the rankings of monetary policies. We find that it does but that a set of policies (money supply targeting implemented by money supply control) can be found that are robust in the sense of avoiding very poor outcomes for either of the two groups.

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Paper provided by C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers in its series CEPR Discussion Papers with number 5609.

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Date of creation: Apr 2006
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Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:5609
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  1. Svensson, Lars E O, 1999. "Price-Level Targeting versus Inflation Targeting: A Free Lunch?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 31(3), pages 277-95, August.
  2. Minford, Patrick & Webb, Bruce, 2005. "Estimating large rational expectations models by FIML--some experiments using a new algorithm with bootstrap confidence limits," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 187-205, January.
  3. Berg, Claes & Jonung, Lars, 1998. "Pioneering Price Level Targeting: The Swedish Experience 1931-1937," Seminar Papers 642, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
  4. McCallum, Bennett T & Nelson, Edward, 1999. "An Optimizing IS-LM Specification for Monetary Policy and Business Cycle Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 31(3), pages 296-316, August.
  5. Miguel Casares, 2004. "Price setting and the steady-state effects of inflation," Spanish Economic Review, Springer, vol. 6(4), pages 267-289, December.
  6. Minford, Patrick, 1980. "A rational expectations model of the United Kingdom under fixed and floating exchange rates," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 293-355, January.
  7. John C. Williams, 2003. "Simple rules for monetary policy," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 1-12.
  8. Kjetil Storesletten & Chris Telmer & Amir Yaron, 1997. "Consumption and risk sharing over the life cycle," GSIA Working Papers 228, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
  9. Lars E.O. Svensson, 1999. "Price Stability as a Target for Monetary Policy: Defining and Maintaining Price Stability," NBER Working Papers 7276, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Vestin, David, 2000. "Price-level Targeting versus Inflation Targeting in a Forward-looking Model," Working Paper Series 106, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  11. Robert E. Hall, 1984. "Monetary strategy with an elastic price standard," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 137-167.
  12. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
  13. Lucas, Robert Jr, 1976. "Econometric policy evaluation: A critique," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 19-46, January.
  14. Andrews, M J & Minford, A P L & Riley, J, 1996. "On Comparing Macroeconomic Models Using Forecast Encompassing Tests," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 58(2), pages 279-305, May.
  15. Nessén, Marianne & Vestin, David, 2000. "Average Inflation Targeting," Working Paper Series 119, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  16. Michael T. Kiley, 1998. "Monetary policy under neoclassical and New-Keynesian Phillips Curves, with an application to price level and inflation targeting," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-27, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  17. Smets, Frank, 2000. "What horizon for price stability," Working Paper Series 0024, European Central Bank.
  18. Patrick Minford & Eric Nowell & Bruce Webb, 2003. "Nominal Contracting and Monetary Targets -- Drifting into Indexation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(484), pages 65-100, January.
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