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The Alleged Instability of Nominal Income Targeting

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  • Bennett T. McCallum

Abstract

Recently it has been argued that a monetary policy of nominal income targeting would result in dynamically unstable processes for output and inflation. That result holds in a theoretical model that includes backward-looking IS and Phillips curve relations, but these are rather special and theoretically unattractive. The present paper demonstrates that replacement of the special Phillips curve with one of several more plausible specifications overturns the instability result, whether or not the IS equation is replaced with a forward-looking version. Thus the instability result is quite fragile and therefore provides almost no basis for a negative judgment regarding nominal income targeting.
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Suggested Citation

  • Bennett T. McCallum, "undated". "The Alleged Instability of Nominal Income Targeting," GSIA Working Papers 1998-20, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
  • Handle: RePEc:cmu:gsiawp:187
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    1. McCallum, Bennett T., 1994. "A semi-classical model of price-level adjustment," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 251-284, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Carl Walsh, 2003. "Speed Limit Policies: The Output Gap and Optimal Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 265-278, March.
    2. Anderson, Richard G. & Bordo, Michael & Duca, John V., 2017. "Money and velocity during financial crises: From the great depression to the great recession," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 32-49.
    3. Weymark, Diana N., 2004. "Economic structure, policy objectives, and optimal interest rate policy at low inflation rates," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 25-51, March.
    4. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2002. "Assessing Nominal Income Rules for Monetary Policy with Model and Data Uncertainty," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(479), pages 402-432, April.
    5. Roisland, Oistein, 2001. "Institutional Arrangements for Monetary Policy When Output Is Persistent," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 33(4), pages 994-1014, November.
    6. Rudebusch, Glenn D. & Svensson, Lars E. O., 2002. "Eurosystem monetary targeting: Lessons from U.S. data," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 417-442, March.
    7. Fang, Chung-rou & Lai, Ching-chong, 2002. "Targeting nominal income versus targeting price level: A target zone perspective," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 229-249.
    8. Fernando Alexandre & John Drifill & Fabio Spagniolo, 2001. "Inflation Targeting and Exchange Rate Co-ordination," NIPE Working Papers 9/2001, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    9. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1999. "Inflation targeting as a monetary policy rule," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 607-654, June.
    10. McCallum, Bennett T. & Nelson, Edward, 1999. "Nominal income targeting in an open-economy optimizing model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 553-578, June.
    11. Eagle, David M., 2012. "Nominal GDP targeting for a speedier economic recovery," MPRA Paper 39821, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Guender, Alfred V. & Tam, Julie, 2004. "On the performance of nominal income targeting as a strategy for monetary policy in a small open economy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 143-163, March.
    13. Driffill, John & Rotondi, Zeno, 2007. "Inertia in Taylor Rules," CEPR Discussion Papers 6570, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    14. Guender, Alfred V., 2002. "Optimal and efficient monetary policy rules in a forward-looking model," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 41-49, March.
    15. Kai Leitemo & Øistein Røisland & Ragnar Torvik, 2005. "Monetary policy rules and the exchange rate channel," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(16), pages 1165-1170.
    16. Helmut Wagner, 2001. "Implications of Globalization for Monetary Policy," IMF Working Papers 01/184, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Cavoli, Tony, 2008. "The exchange rate and optimal monetary policy rules in open and developing economies: Some simple analytics," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 1011-1021, September.
    18. Mark Gertler & Jordi Gali & Richard Clarida, 1999. "The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 37(4), pages 1661-1707, December.
    19. Jean-Paul Lam, 2003. "Alternative Targeting Regimes, Transmission lags and the Exchange rate Channel," Macroeconomics 0309005, EconWPA, revised 03 Dec 2003.
    20. Voutsinas, Konstantinos & Werner, Richard A., 2011. "New evidence on the effectiveness of "Quantitative Easing" in Japan," CFS Working Paper Series 2011/30, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    21. Helmut Frisch & Sylvia Staudinger, 2002. "Comparing Different Central Bank Targets," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 29(1), pages 11-30, March.
    22. Sylvia Staudinger, 2000. "Inflation Targeting versus Nominal Income Targeting," CESifo Working Paper Series 301, CESifo Group Munich.
    23. Alexandre, Fernando & Driffill, John & Spagnolo, Fabio, 2002. "Inflation Targeting, Exchange Rate Volatility and International Policy Coordination," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 70(4), pages 546-569, Special I.
    24. Mitra, Kaushik, 2003. " Desirability of Nominal GDP Targeting under Adaptive Learning," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(2), pages 197-220, April.
    25. Evan F. Koenig, 2012. "All in the family: the close connection between nominal-GDP targeting and the Taylor Rule," Staff Papers, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, issue Mar.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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