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How did the Fed react to the 1990s stock market bubble? Evidence from an extended Taylor rule

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  • Hayford, M. D.
  • Malliaris, A. G.

Abstract

AbstractHow did the Federal Reserve Bank react to the stock market bubble of the late 1990s? At a Symposium sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City in Jackson Hole, Wyoming on August 30, 2002, Chairman Alan Greenspan remarked that economists do not currently have a way to measure a stock market bubble convincingly. He also argued that in the absence of such a measure, it was difficult for the Fed to justify, with some degree of certainty, a preemptive tightening that would likely be necessary to neutralize such a bubble. This paper extends the Taylor Rule methodology to include three measures of stock market overvaluation and confirms Greenspan's statement that the Fed did not neutralize the bubble. However, the extended Taylor Rule methodology also shows that the Fed, perhaps unintentionally, by keeping the Fed funds rate below those suggested by the Taylor Rule, may have actually contributed to the growth of the bubble.
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Suggested Citation

  • Hayford, M. D. & Malliaris, A. G., 2005. "How did the Fed react to the 1990s stock market bubble? Evidence from an extended Taylor rule," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 163(1), pages 20-29, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ejores:v:163:y:2005:i:1:p:20-29
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 2001. "Should Central Banks Respond to Movements in Asset Prices?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 253-257, May.
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    3. Stephen G. Cecchetti, 1998. "Policy rules and targets: framing the central banker's problem," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Jun, pages 1-14.
    4. Lars E. O. Svensson, 2002. "Monetary policy and real stabilization," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 261-312.
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    6. John B. Taylor, 1999. "A Historical Analysis of Monetary Policy Rules," NBER Chapters,in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 319-348 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Roberto Rigobon & Brian Sack, 2001. "Measuring the Reaction of Monetary Policy to the Stock Market," NBER Working Papers 8350, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1999. "Monetary policy and asset price volatility," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 77-128.
    9. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
    10. Charles L. Evans, 1998. "Real-time Taylor rules and the federal funds futures market," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q III, pages 44-55.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Dong Jin Lee & Jong Chil Son, 2011. "Nonlinearity and Structural Breaks in Monetary Policy Rules with Stock Prices," Working papers 2011-19, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    2. Lukáš Pfeifer & Zdeněk Pikhart, 2014. "Vztah finanční a cenové stability v podmínkách ČR
      [The Relationship of Financial and Price Stability in the Context of the Czech Republic]
      ," Politická ekonomie, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2014(1), pages 49-66.
    3. Max Gillman & Michal Kejak & Giulia Ghiani, 2014. "Money, Banking and Interest Rates: Monetary Policy Regimes with Markov-Switching VECM Evidence," CEU Working Papers 2014_3, Department of Economics, Central European University.
    4. Lee, Dong Jin & Son, Jong Chil, 2013. "Nonlinearity and structural breaks in monetary policy rules with stock prices," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 1-11.
    5. Giulia Ghiani & Max Gillman & Michal Kejak, 2014. "Money, Banking and Interest Rates: Monetary Policy Regimes with Markov-Switching VECM Evidence," Working Papers 1003, University of Missouri-St. Louis, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • C73 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Stochastic and Dynamic Games; Evolutionary Games
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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