ECB Policy Response to the Euro/US Dollar Exchange Rate
The exchange rate is an important part of transmission mechanism in the determination of monetary policy because movements in the exchange rate have significant effect on the macroeconomy. Measuring the reaction of monetary policy to the movements in exchange rate has some difficulties due to the simultaneous response of monetary policy on the exchange rate and the possibility that both variables respond several other variables. This study will use an identification method based on the heteroscedasticity in the high-frequency data. In particular, shifts in the importance of exchange rate relative to monetary policy shocks, and the estimated changes in the covariance between the shocks that result, allow us to measure the reaction of interest rates to changes in exchange rates. This study comes up with unbiased estimates with heteroscedasticity based identification approach and results of this paper suggest that ECB systematically respond to the exchange rate movements but that quantitative effects are small. The empirical results indicate that a 1 point rise (fall) in the exchange rate tends to decrease (increase) the three-month interest rate by around 20 basis points. Small and negative reaction coefficient implies that ECB may respond to the movements in exchange rate only to the extent warranted by their impact on the macroeconomy, since it affects the expected inflation and future output path.
|Date of creation:||17 Feb 2012|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- John B. Taylor, 2001. "The Role of the Exchange Rate in Monetary-Policy Rules," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 263-267, May.
- Roberto Rigobon & Brian Sack, 2001.
"Measuring the Reaction of Monetary Policy to the Stock Market,"
NBER Working Papers
8350, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Roberto Rigobon & Brian Sack, 2003. "Measuring The Reaction Of Monetary Policy To The Stock Market," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 118(2), pages 639-669, May.
- Roberto Rigobon & Brian Sack, 2001. "Measuring the reaction of monetary policy to the stock market," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-14, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Francesco Furlanetto, 2011.
"Does Monetary Policy React to Asset Prices? Some International Evidence,"
International Journal of Central Banking,
International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 7(3), pages 91-111, September.
- Francesco FURLANETTO, 2008. "Does Monetary Policy React to Asset Prices? Some International Evidence," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) 08.02, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP.
- Francesco Furlanetto, 2008. "Does monetary policy react to asset prices? Some international evidence," Working Paper 2008/07, Norges Bank.
- Roberto Rigobon & Brian Sack, 2002.
"The impact of monetary policy on asset prices,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
2002-4, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 1995.
"The Mirage of Fixed Exchange Rates,"
Journal of Economic Perspectives,
American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 73-96, Fall.
- Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 1995. "The mirage of fixed exchange rates," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 95-08, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 1995. "The Mirage of Fixed Exchange Rates," NBER Working Papers 5191, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bohl, Martin T. & Siklos, Pierre L. & Werner, Thomas, 2007. "Do central banks react to the stock market? The case of the Bundesbank," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 719-733, March.
- M. S. Mohanty & Marc Klau, 2004. "Monetary policy rules in emerging market economies: issues and evidence," BIS Working Papers 149, Bank for International Settlements.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:36744. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.