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ECB Policy Response to the Euro/US Dollar Exchange Rate

  • Demir, Ishak

The exchange rate is an important part of transmission mechanism in the determination of monetary policy because movements in the exchange rate have significant effect on the macroeconomy. Measuring the reaction of monetary policy to the movements in exchange rate has some difficulties due to the simultaneous response of monetary policy on the exchange rate and the possibility that both variables respond several other variables. This study will use an identification method based on the heteroscedasticity in the high-frequency data. In particular, shifts in the importance of exchange rate relative to monetary policy shocks, and the estimated changes in the covariance between the shocks that result, allow us to measure the reaction of interest rates to changes in exchange rates. This study comes up with unbiased estimates with heteroscedasticity based identification approach and results of this paper suggest that ECB systematically respond to the exchange rate movements but that quantitative effects are small. The empirical results indicate that a 1 point rise (fall) in the exchange rate tends to decrease (increase) the three-month interest rate by around 20 basis points. Small and negative reaction coefficient implies that ECB may respond to the movements in exchange rate only to the extent warranted by their impact on the macroeconomy, since it affects the expected inflation and future output path.

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File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/51533/1/MPRA_paper_51533.pdf
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 36744.

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Date of creation: 17 Feb 2012
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:36744
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  1. John B. Taylor, 2001. "The Role of the Exchange Rate in Monetary-Policy Rules," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 263-267, May.
  2. Naoto Osawa, 2006. "Monetary Policy Responses to the Exchange Rate: Empirical Evidence from Three East Asian Inflation-Targeting Countries," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 06-E-14, Bank of Japan.
  3. Francesco Furlanetto, 2011. "Does Monetary Policy React to Asset Prices? Some International Evidence," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 7(3), pages 91-111, September.
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  9. Frömmel, Michael & Schobert, Franziska, 2006. "Monetary Policy Rules in Central and Eastern Europe," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-341, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
  10. Roberto Rigobon, 2003. "Identification Through Heteroskedasticity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 777-792, November.
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  12. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 1995. "The mirage of fixed exchange rates," Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory 95-08, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  13. Roberto Rigobon & Brian P. Sack, 2002. "The Impact of Monetary Policy on Asset Prices," NBER Working Papers 8794, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Laurence Ball, 2002. "Policy Rules and External Shocks," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Norman Loayza & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series (ed.), Monetary Policy: Rules and Transmission Mechanisms, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 3, pages 047-064 Central Bank of Chile.
  15. Roberto Rigobon & Brian Sack, 2003. "Measuring The Reaction of Monetary Policy to the Stock Market," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 118(2), pages 639-669.
  16. Bohl, Martin T. & Siklos, Pierre L. & Werner, Thomas, 2007. "Do central banks react to the stock market? The case of the Bundesbank," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 719-733, March.
  17. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 2001. "Should Central Banks Respond to Movements in Asset Prices?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(2), pages 253-257, May.
  18. John B. Taylor, 2000. "The Monetary Transmission Mechanism and the Evaluation of Monetary Policy Rules," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 87, Central Bank of Chile.
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