IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/phsmap/v506y2018icp1026-1037.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The effectiveness of the monetary policy in China: New evidence from long-range cross-correlation analysis and the components of multifractality

Author

Listed:
  • Qin, Jing
  • Ge, Jintian
  • Lu, Xinsheng

Abstract

This study examines the long-range cross-correlations between the Chinese Renminbi (RMB) exchange rate and the Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate (Shibor) markets both on qualitative and quantitative basis, using a comprehensive dataset covering the period from October 8, 2006 to September 30, 2016. Our empirical results suggest that a nonlinear time-varying correlation exists between the markets. We also verify that the third stage of China’s monetary policy reform from 2011 to 2016 had a greater influence on both small and large foreign exchange (FX) market fluctuations. Using the multifractality analysis, we conclude that China’s monetary policy can significantly reduce the multifractality of cross-correlations between the RMB exchange rate and Shibor rate markets, and that market efficiency in the third stage of policy reform is improved. Furthermore, the source of multifractality of cross-correlations is found mostly in the nonlinear correlation and fat-tailed probability distribution (PDF) components.

Suggested Citation

  • Qin, Jing & Ge, Jintian & Lu, Xinsheng, 2018. "The effectiveness of the monetary policy in China: New evidence from long-range cross-correlation analysis and the components of multifractality," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 506(C), pages 1026-1037.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:506:y:2018:i:c:p:1026-1037
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2018.04.068
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378437118304886
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only. Journal offers the option of making the article available online on Science direct for a fee of $3,000

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rebecca J. Sela & Clifford M. Hurvich, 2012. "The averaged periodogram estimator for a power law in coherency," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(2), pages 340-363, March.
    2. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Fear of Floating," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408.
    3. Yuan, Ying & Zhuang, Xin-tian & Liu, Zhi-ying, 2012. "Price–volume multifractal analysis and its application in Chinese stock markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(12), pages 3484-3495.
    4. Grech, D & Mazur, Z, 2004. "Can one make any crash prediction in finance using the local Hurst exponent idea?," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 336(1), pages 133-145.
    5. Cristescu, Constantin P. & Stan, Cristina & Scarlat, Eugen I. & Minea, Teofil & Cristescu, Cristina M., 2012. "Parameter motivated mutual correlation analysis: Application to the study of currency exchange rates based on intermittency parameter and Hurst exponent," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(8), pages 2623-2635.
    6. Hacker, R. Scott & Karlsson, Hyunjoo Kim & Månsson, Kristofer, 2014. "An investigation of the causal relations between exchange rates and interest rate differentials using wavelets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 321-329.
    7. Wang, Yudong & Wei, Yu & Wu, Chongfeng, 2010. "Cross-correlations between Chinese A-share and B-share markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(23), pages 5468-5478.
    8. He, Ling-Yun & Chen, Shu-Peng, 2011. "A new approach to quantify power-law cross-correlation and its application to commodity markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(21), pages 3806-3814.
    9. Ladislav Kristoufek, 2016. "Power-law cross-correlations estimation under heavy tails," Papers 1602.05385, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2016.
    10. Luis Felipe Céspedes & Roberto Chang & Andrés Velasco, 2004. "Balance Sheets and Exchange Rate Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 1183-1193, September.
    11. Zebende, G.F. & da Silva, M.F. & Machado Filho, A., 2013. "DCCA cross-correlation coefficient differentiation: Theoretical and practical approaches," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(8), pages 1756-1761.
    12. Calvo, Guillermo A, 2001. "Capital Markets and the Exchange Rate with Special Reference to the Dollarization Debate in Latin America," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 33(2), pages 312-334, May.
    13. Sensoy, Ahmet & Sobaci, Cihat, 2014. "Effects of volatility shocks on the dynamic linkages between exchange rate, interest rate and the stock market: The case of Turkey," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 448-457.
    14. Janine Aron & Ronald Macdonald & John Muellbauer, 2014. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Developing and Emerging Markets: A Survey of Conceptual, Methodological and Policy Issues, and Selected Empirical Findings," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(1), pages 101-143, January.
    15. Sergio Arianos & Anna Carbone, 2008. "Cross-correlation of long-range correlated series," Papers 0804.2064, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2009.
    16. Cao, Guangxi & Xu, Longbing & Cao, Jie, 2012. "Multifractal detrended cross-correlations between the Chinese exchange market and stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(20), pages 4855-4866.
    17. Mallick, Sushanta K. & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2012. "Real Effects Of Monetary Policy In Large Emerging Economies," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(S2), pages 190-212, September.
    18. Demir, İshak, 2014. "Monetary policy responses to the exchange rate: Empirical evidence from the ECB," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 63-70.
    19. Granville, Brigitte & Mallick, Sushanta, 2010. "Monetary Policy in Russia: Identifying exchange rate shocks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 432-444, January.
    20. Zhi-Qiang Jiang & Wei-Xing Zhou, 2011. "Multifractal detrending moving average cross-correlation analysis," Papers 1103.2577, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2011.
    21. Chen, Feier & Tian, Kang & Ding, Xiaoxu & Miao, Yuqi & Lu, Chunxia, 2016. "Finite-size effect and the components of multifractality in transport economics volatility based on multifractal detrending moving average method," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 462(C), pages 1058-1066.
    22. Zebende, G.F., 2011. "DCCA cross-correlation coefficient: Quantifying level of cross-correlation," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 390(4), pages 614-618.
    23. Ma, Feng & Wei, Yu & Huang, Dengshi, 2013. "Multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis between the Chinese stock market and surrounding stock markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(7), pages 1659-1670.
    24. Branson, William H. & Halttunen, Hannu & Masson, Paul, 1977. "Exchange rates in the short run: The dollar-dentschemark rate," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 303-324.
    25. Yuan, Ying & Zhuang, Xin-tian & Jin, Xiu, 2009. "Measuring multifractality of stock price fluctuation using multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 388(11), pages 2189-2197.
    26. Ghosh, Atish R. & Ostry, Jonathan D. & Chamon, Marcos, 2016. "Two targets, two instruments: Monetary and exchange rate policies in emerging market economies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 172-196.
    27. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2000. "Fixing for Your Life," NBER Working Papers 8006, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    28. Allan Drazen & Stefan Hubrich, 2006. "A Simple Test of the Effect of Interest Rate Defense," NBER Working Papers 12616, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    29. Carlos Bautista, 2003. "Interest rate-exchange rate dynamics in the Philippines: a DCC analysis," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(2), pages 107-111.
    30. R. Scott Hacker & Hyunjoo Kim Karlsson & Kristofer Månsson, 2012. "The Relationship between Exchange Rates and Interest Rate Differentials: A Wavelet Approach," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(9), pages 1162-1185, September.
    31. Barry Eichengreen, 2006. "Can Emerging Markets Float? Should They Inflation Target?," Chapters, in: Matías Vernengo (ed.), Monetary Integration and Dollarization, chapter 8, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    32. Grech, Dariusz & Pamuła, Grzegorz, 2008. "The local Hurst exponent of the financial time series in the vicinity of crashes on the Polish stock exchange market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 387(16), pages 4299-4308.
    33. B. Podobnik & I. Grosse & D. Horvatić & S. Ilic & P. Ch. Ivanov & H. E. Stanley, 2009. "Quantifying cross-correlations using local and global detrending approaches," The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer;EDP Sciences, vol. 71(2), pages 243-250, September.
    34. repec:arx:papers:1501.02947 is not listed on IDEAS
    35. Gvozdanovic, Igor & Podobnik, Boris & Wang, Duan & Eugene Stanley, H., 2012. "1/f behavior in cross-correlations between absolute returns in a US market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(9), pages 2860-2866.
    36. Cajueiro, Daniel O. & Tabak, Benjamin M., 2004. "Evidence of long range dependence in Asian equity markets: the role of liquidity and market restrictions," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 342(3), pages 656-664.
    37. Kantelhardt, Jan W. & Zschiegner, Stephan A. & Koscielny-Bunde, Eva & Havlin, Shlomo & Bunde, Armin & Stanley, H.Eugene, 2002. "Multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis of nonstationary time series," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 316(1), pages 87-114.
    38. Drazen, Allan & Hubrich, Stefan, 2006. "A simple test of the effect of interest rate defense," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 612-636, December.
    39. Betts, Caroline & Devereux, Michael B., 2000. "Exchange rate dynamics in a model of pricing-to-market," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 215-244, February.
    40. Wei-Xing Zhou, 2008. "Multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis for two nonstationary signals," Papers 0803.2773, arXiv.org.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:506:y:2018:i:c:p:1026-1037. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/physica-a-statistical-mechpplications/ .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.