IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/phsmap/v510y2018icp658-670.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The inefficiency of cryptocurrency and its cross-correlation with Dow Jones Industrial Average

Author

Listed:
  • Zhang, Wei
  • Wang, Pengfei
  • Li, Xiao
  • Shen, Dehua

Abstract

As a form of cryptocurrency, the issue of informational efficiency of Bitcoin has received much attention recently. We add to the literature by investigating nine forms of cryptocurrencies, i.e., Bitcoin, Ripple, Ethereum, NEM, Stellar, Litecoin, Dash, Monero and Verge, with a battery of efficiency tests and the empirical results indicate that all these cryptocurrencies are inefficient markets. What is more, we further construct a value-weighted Cryptocurrency Composite Index (CCI) and show that CCI and Dow Jones Industrial Average are persistently cross-correlated.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhang, Wei & Wang, Pengfei & Li, Xiao & Shen, Dehua, 2018. "The inefficiency of cryptocurrency and its cross-correlation with Dow Jones Industrial Average," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 510(C), pages 658-670.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:510:y:2018:i:c:p:658-670
    DOI: 10.1016/j.physa.2018.07.032
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378437118308963
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only. Journal offers the option of making the article available online on Science direct for a fee of $3,000
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.physa.2018.07.032?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Liu, Ruipeng & Westerlund, Joakim, 2016. "A GARCH model for testing market efficiency," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 121-138.
    2. Li, Xiao & Shen, Dehua & Zhang, Wei, 2018. "Do Chinese internet stock message boards convey firm-specific information?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 1-14.
    3. Ladislav Kristoufek, 2013. "Testing power-law cross-correlations: Rescaled covariance test," Papers 1307.4727, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2013.
    4. Ladislav Kristoufek & Miloslav Vosvrda, 2014. "Measuring capital market efficiency: long-term memory, fractal dimension and approximate entropy," The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer;EDP Sciences, vol. 87(7), pages 1-9, July.
    5. Wen-Jie Xie & Zhi-Qiang Jiang & Gao-Feng Gu & Xiong Xiong & Wei-Xing Zhou, 2015. "Joint multifractal analysis based on the partition function approach: Analytical analysis, numerical simulation and empirical application," Papers 1509.05952, arXiv.org.
    6. Kristoufek, Ladislav, 2015. "Power-law correlations in finance-related Google searches, and their cross-correlations with volatility and traded volume: Evidence from the Dow Jones Industrial components," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 428(C), pages 194-205.
    7. Urquhart, Andrew, 2017. "Price clustering in Bitcoin," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 145-148.
    8. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Jana, R.K. & Das, Debojyoti & Roubaud, David, 2018. "Informational efficiency of Bitcoin—An extension," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 163(C), pages 106-109.
    9. Wang, Yudong & Wei, Yu & Wu, Chongfeng, 2010. "Cross-correlations between Chinese A-share and B-share markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(23), pages 5468-5478.
    10. Ciaian, Pavel & Rajcaniova, Miroslava & Kancs, d'Artis, 2018. "Virtual relationships: Short- and long-run evidence from BitCoin and altcoin markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 173-195.
    11. Kristoufek, Ladislav & Vosvrda, Miloslav, 2014. "Commodity futures and market efficiency," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 50-57.
    12. Zhang, Wei & Shen, Dehua & Zhang, Yongjie & Xiong, Xiong, 2013. "Open source information, investor attention, and asset pricing," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 613-619.
    13. Kristoufek, Ladislav & Vosvrda, Miloslav, 2016. "Gold, currencies and market efficiency," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 449(C), pages 27-34.
    14. Alvarez-Ramirez, J. & Rodriguez, E. & Ibarra-Valdez, C., 2018. "Long-range correlations and asymmetry in the Bitcoin market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 492(C), pages 948-955.
    15. Ladislav Kristoufek, 2016. "Power-law cross-correlations estimation under heavy tails," Papers 1602.05385, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2016.
    16. Kristoufek, Ladislav, 2014. "Measuring correlations between non-stationary series with DCCA coefficient," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 402(C), pages 291-298.
    17. Zhuang, Xiaoyang & Wei, Yu & Ma, Feng, 2015. "Multifractality, efficiency analysis of Chinese stock market and its cross-correlation with WTI crude oil price," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 430(C), pages 101-113.
    18. Kristoufek, Ladislav & Vosvrda, Miloslav, 2013. "Measuring capital market efficiency: Global and local correlations structure," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(1), pages 184-193.
    19. Pawe{l} O'swic{e}cimka & Stanis{l}aw Dro.zd.z & Marcin Forczek & Stanis{l}aw Jadach & Jaros{l}aw Kwapie'n, 2013. "Detrended Cross-Correlation Analysis Consistently Extended to Multifractality," Papers 1308.6148, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2014.
    20. Jiang, Zhi-Qiang & Xie, Wen-Jie & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2014. "Testing the weak-form efficiency of the WTI crude oil futures market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 405(C), pages 235-244.
    21. Zhang, Wei & Wang, Pengfei & Li, Xiao & Shen, Dehua, 2018. "Quantifying the cross-correlations between online searches and Bitcoin market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 509(C), pages 657-672.
    22. Peng Yue & Hai-Chuan Xu & Wei Chen & Xiong Xiong & Wei-Xing Zhou, 2017. "Linear and nonlinear correlations in order aggressiveness of Chinese stocks," Papers 1707.05604, arXiv.org.
    23. Zhi-Qiang Jiang & Wei-Xing Zhou, 2011. "Multifractal detrending moving average cross-correlation analysis," Papers 1103.2577, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2011.
    24. Zhuang, Xiaoyang & Wei, Yu & Zhang, Bangzheng, 2014. "Multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis of carbon and crude oil markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 399(C), pages 113-125.
    25. Ma, Feng & Wei, Yu & Huang, Dengshi, 2013. "Multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis between the Chinese stock market and surrounding stock markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(7), pages 1659-1670.
    26. Urquhart, Andrew, 2016. "The inefficiency of Bitcoin," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 80-82.
    27. Bariviera, Aurelio F., 2017. "The inefficiency of Bitcoin revisited: A dynamic approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 1-4.
    28. Zhi-Qiang Jiang & Wen-Jie Xie & Wei-Xing Zhou & Didier Sornette, 2018. "Multifractal analysis of financial markets," Papers 1805.04750, arXiv.org.
    29. Ma, Feng & Wei, Yu & Huang, Dengshi & Zhao, Lin, 2013. "Cross-correlations between West Texas Intermediate crude oil and the stock markets of the BRIC," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(21), pages 5356-5368.
    30. Kristoufek, Ladislav, 2018. "On Bitcoin markets (in)efficiency and its evolution," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 503(C), pages 257-262.
    31. Kristoufek, Ladislav, 2015. "On the interplay between short and long term memory in the power-law cross-correlations setting," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 421(C), pages 218-222.
    32. Ladislav Kristoufek, 2015. "What Are the Main Drivers of the Bitcoin Price? Evidence from Wavelet Coherence Analysis," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(4), pages 1-15, April.
    33. Gandal, Neil & Hamrick, JT & Moore, Tyler & Oberman, Tali, 2018. "Price manipulation in the Bitcoin ecosystem," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 86-96.
    34. Zuochao Zhang & Yongjie Zhang & Dehua Shen & Wei Zhang, 2018. "The Dynamic Cross-Correlations between Mass Media News, New Media News, and Stock Returns," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2018, pages 1-11, February.
    35. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
    36. Bouoiyour, Jamal & Selmi, Refk & Wohar, Mark E., 2018. "Are Islamic stock markets efficient? A multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 100-105.
    37. B. Podobnik & I. Grosse & D. Horvatić & S. Ilic & P. Ch. Ivanov & H. E. Stanley, 2009. "Quantifying cross-correlations using local and global detrending approaches," The European Physical Journal B: Condensed Matter and Complex Systems, Springer;EDP Sciences, vol. 71(2), pages 243-250, September.
    38. Kim, Jae H., 2009. "Automatic variance ratio test under conditional heteroskedasticity," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 179-185, September.
    39. Gvozdanovic, Igor & Podobnik, Boris & Wang, Duan & Eugene Stanley, H., 2012. "1/f behavior in cross-correlations between absolute returns in a US market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 391(9), pages 2860-2866.
    40. Kantelhardt, Jan W. & Zschiegner, Stephan A. & Koscielny-Bunde, Eva & Havlin, Shlomo & Bunde, Armin & Stanley, H.Eugene, 2002. "Multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis of nonstationary time series," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 316(1), pages 87-114.
    41. Bouri, Elie & Molnár, Peter & Azzi, Georges & Roubaud, David & Hagfors, Lars Ivar, 2017. "On the hedge and safe haven properties of Bitcoin: Is it really more than a diversifier?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 192-198.
    42. Wei-Xing Zhou, 2008. "Multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis for two nonstationary signals," Papers 0803.2773, arXiv.org.
    43. Gu, Rongbao & Shao, Yanmin & Wang, Qingnan, 2013. "Is the efficiency of stock market correlated with multifractality? An evidence from the Shanghai stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(2), pages 361-370.
    44. Bariviera, Aurelio F. & Basgall, María José & Hasperué, Waldo & Naiouf, Marcelo, 2017. "Some stylized facts of the Bitcoin market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 484(C), pages 82-90.
    45. Ladislav Kristoufek, 2016. "Fractal approach towards power-law coherency to measure cross-correlations between time series," Papers 1608.06781, arXiv.org, revised Feb 2017.
    46. Balcilar, Mehmet & Bouri, Elie & Gupta, Rangan & Roubaud, David, 2017. "Can volume predict Bitcoin returns and volatility? A quantiles-based approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 74-81.
    47. Mobarek, Asma & Fiorante, Angelo, 2014. "The prospects of BRIC countries: Testing weak-form market efficiency," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 217-232.
    48. Ntim, Collins G. & English, John & Nwachukwu, Jacinta & Wang, Yan, 2015. "On the efficiency of the global gold markets," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 218-236.
    49. Zhang, Wei & Li, Yi & Zhang, Zuochao & Shen, Dehua, 2018. "The dynamic cross-correlations between foreign news, local news and stock returns," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 509(C), pages 861-872.
    50. Wei Zhang & Pengfei Wang & Xiao Li & Dehua Shen, 2018. "Some stylized facts of the cryptocurrency market," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(55), pages 5950-5965, November.
    51. Nadarajah, Saralees & Chu, Jeffrey, 2017. "On the inefficiency of Bitcoin," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 6-9.
    52. Hendrickson, Joshua R. & Luther, William J., 2017. "Banning bitcoin," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 188-195.
    53. Wang, Yudong & Liu, Li & Gu, Rongbao, 2009. "Analysis of efficiency for Shenzhen stock market based on multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 271-276, December.
    54. Aaron Yelowitz & Matthew Wilson, 2015. "Characteristics of Bitcoin users: an analysis of Google search data," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(13), pages 1030-1036, September.
    55. Zhou, Weijie & Dang, Yaoguo & Gu, Rongbao, 2013. "Efficiency and multifractality analysis of CSI 300 based on multifractal detrending moving average algorithm," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(6), pages 1429-1438.
    56. Kim, Thomas, 2017. "On the transaction cost of Bitcoin," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 300-305.
    57. Cheah, Eng-Tuck & Fry, John, 2015. "Speculative bubbles in Bitcoin markets? An empirical investigation into the fundamental value of Bitcoin," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 130(C), pages 32-36.
    58. Baur, Dirk G. & Dimpfl, Thomas & Kuck, Konstantin, 2018. "Bitcoin, gold and the US dollar – A replication and extension," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 103-110.
    59. Katsiampa, Paraskevi, 2017. "Volatility estimation for Bitcoin: A comparison of GARCH models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 3-6.
    60. Wang, Dong-Hua & Suo, Yuan-Yuan & Yu, Xiao-Wen & Lei, Man, 2013. "Price–volume cross-correlation analysis of CSI300 index futures," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 392(5), pages 1172-1179.
    61. Kristoufek, Ladislav, 2015. "Finite sample properties of power-law cross-correlations estimators," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 419(C), pages 513-525.
    62. Dyhrberg, Anne Haubo, 2016. "Hedging capabilities of bitcoin. Is it the virtual gold?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 139-144.
    63. Gao-Feng Gu & Wei-Xing Zhou, 2010. "Detrending moving average algorithm for multifractals," Papers 1005.0877, arXiv.org, revised Jun 2010.
    64. Brandvold, Morten & Molnár, Peter & Vagstad, Kristian & Andreas Valstad, Ole Christian, 2015. "Price discovery on Bitcoin exchanges," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 18-35.
    65. Baur, Dirk G. & Hong, KiHoon & Lee, Adrian D., 2018. "Bitcoin: Medium of exchange or speculative assets?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 177-189.
    66. Xi-Yuan Qian & Ya-Min Liu & Zhi-Qiang Jiang & Boris Podobnik & Wei-Xing Zhou & H. Eugene Stanley, 2015. "Detrended partial cross-correlation analysis of two nonstationary time series influenced by common external forces," Papers 1504.02435, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2015.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zhang, Wei & Wang, Pengfei & Li, Xiao & Shen, Dehua, 2018. "Quantifying the cross-correlations between online searches and Bitcoin market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 509(C), pages 657-672.
    2. Flori, Andrea, 2019. "News and subjective beliefs: A Bayesian approach to Bitcoin investments," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 336-356.
    3. Andrea Flori, 2019. "Cryptocurrencies In Finance: Review And Applications," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 22(05), pages 1-22, August.
    4. ORĂȘTEAN Ramona & MĂRGINEAN Silvia Cristina & SAVA Raluca, 2019. "Bitcoin In The Scientific Literature – A Bibliometric Study," Studies in Business and Economics, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 14(3), pages 160-174, December.
    5. Lennart Ante, 2020. "A place next to Satoshi: foundations of blockchain and cryptocurrency research in business and economics," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 124(2), pages 1305-1333, August.
    6. Corbet, Shaen & Lucey, Brian & Urquhart, Andrew & Yarovaya, Larisa, 2019. "Cryptocurrencies as a financial asset: A systematic analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 182-199.
    7. Ghazani, Majid Mirzaee & Khosravi, Reza, 2020. "Multifractal detrended cross-correlation analysis on benchmark cryptocurrencies and crude oil prices," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 560(C).
    8. Aurelio F. Bariviera & Ignasi Merediz‐Solà, 2021. "Where Do We Stand In Cryptocurrencies Economic Research? A Survey Based On Hybrid Analysis," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(2), pages 377-407, April.
    9. Nikolaos A. Kyriazis, 2019. "A Survey on Efficiency and Profitable Trading Opportunities in Cryptocurrency Markets," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-17, April.
    10. Wei Zhang & Pengfei Wang & Xiao Li & Dehua Shen, 2018. "Some stylized facts of the cryptocurrency market," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(55), pages 5950-5965, November.
    11. Sukpitak, Jessada & Hengpunya, Varagorn, 2016. "The influence of trading volume on market efficiency: The DCCA approach," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 458(C), pages 259-265.
    12. Li, Mu-Yao & Cai, Qing & Gu, Gao-Feng & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2019. "Exponentially decayed double power-law distribution of Bitcoin trade sizes," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 535(C).
    13. Pengfei Wang & Wei Zhang & Xiao Li & Dehua Shen, 2019. "Trading volume and return volatility of Bitcoin market: evidence for the sequential information arrival hypothesis," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 14(2), pages 377-418, June.
    14. Abakah, Emmanuel Joel Aikins & Gil-Alana, Luis Alberiko & Madigu, Godfrey & Romero-Rojo, Fatima, 2020. "Volatility persistence in cryptocurrency markets under structural breaks," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 680-691.
    15. Parthajit Kayal & G. Balasubramanian, 2021. "Excess Volatility in Bitcoin: Extreme Value Volatility Estimation," IIM Kozhikode Society & Management Review, , vol. 10(2), pages 222-231, July.
    16. Panagiotidis, Theodore & Stengos, Thanasis & Vravosinos, Orestis, 2019. "The effects of markets, uncertainty and search intensity on bitcoin returns," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 220-242.
    17. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Gabauer, David, 2019. "Cryptocurrency market contagion: Market uncertainty, market complexity, and dynamic portfolios," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 37-51.
    18. Kakinaka, Shinji & Umeno, Ken, 2021. "Exploring asymmetric multifractal cross-correlations of price–volatility and asymmetric volatility dynamics in cryptocurrency markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 581(C).
    19. Ruan, Qingsong & Bao, Junjie & Zhang, Manqian & Fan, Limin, 2019. "The effects of exchange rate regime reform on RMB markets: A new perspective based on MF-DCCA," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 522(C), pages 122-134.
    20. Köchling, Gerrit & Müller, Janis & Posch, Peter N., 2019. "Does the introduction of futures improve the efficiency of Bitcoin?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 367-370.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:phsmap:v:510:y:2018:i:c:p:658-670. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/physica-a-statistical-mechpplications/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.