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Gold, currencies and market efficiency

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  • Ladislav Kristoufek
  • Miloslav Vosvrda

Abstract

Gold and currency markets form a unique pair with specific interactions and dynamics. We focus on the efficiency ranking of gold markets with respect to the currency of purchase. By utilizing the Efficiency Index (EI) based on fractal dimension, approximate entropy and long-term memory on a wide portfolio of 142 gold price series for different currencies, we construct the efficiency ranking based on the extended EI methodology we provide. Rather unexpected results are uncovered as the gold prices in major currencies lay among the least efficient ones whereas very minor currencies are among the most efficient ones. We argue that such counterintuitive results can be partly attributed to a unique period of examination (2011-2014) characteristic by quantitative easing and rather unorthodox monetary policies together with the investigated illegal collusion of major foreign exchange market participants, as well as some other factors discussed in some detail.

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  • Ladislav Kristoufek & Miloslav Vosvrda, 2015. "Gold, currencies and market efficiency," Papers 1510.08615, arXiv.org.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:1510.08615
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    11. Matthieu Garcin, 2021. "Forecasting with fractional Brownian motion: a financial perspective," Papers 2105.09140, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2021.
    12. Huang, Menghao & Shao, Wei & Wang, Jian, 2023. "Correlations between the crude oil market and capital markets under the Russia–Ukraine conflict: A perspective of crude oil importing and exporting countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
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    14. Kristoufek, Ladislav, 2018. "On Bitcoin markets (in)efficiency and its evolution," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 503(C), pages 257-262.
    15. Stosic, Darko & Stosic, Dusan & Ludermir, Teresa B. & Stosic, Tatijana, 2019. "Exploring disorder and complexity in the cryptocurrency space," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 525(C), pages 548-556.
    16. Osman Gulseven, 2020. "Turn-of-the Year Affect in Gold Prices: Decomposition Analysis," Papers 2003.11027, arXiv.org.
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    18. Matthieu Garcin, 2021. "Forecasting with fractional Brownian motion: a financial perspective," Working Papers hal-03230167, HAL.
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    21. Asif, Raheel & Frömmel, Michael & Mende, Alexander, 2022. "The crisis alpha of managed futures: Myth or reality?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
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    23. Muhammad Ali Nasir & Toan Luu Duc Huynh & Sang Phu Nguyen & Duy Duong, 2019. "Forecasting cryptocurrency returns and volume using search engines," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 5(1), pages 1-13, December.
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    25. Pritpal Singh BHULLAR & Dyal BHATNAGAR, 2020. "Bitcoins as a determinant of stock market movements: A comparison of Indian and Chinese Stock Markets," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania / Editura Economica, vol. 0(3(624), A), pages 193-202, Autumn.

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