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Predictability dynamics of Islamic and conventional equity markets

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  • Sensoy, Ahmet
  • Aras, Guler
  • Hacihasanoglu, Erk

Abstract

This study undertakes the challenging task of comparing the weak form efficiency of conventional and Islamic equity markets. Using 12 different Dow Jones indexes that cover 16 years of daily data, we compare the time-varying non-linear predictability patterns of conventional market indexes and their Islamic counterparts at country and continent level by using permutation entropy. Accordingly, we find that all indexes in our analysis have different degrees of time-varying predictability and all conventional markets are found to be more efficient compared to their Islamic counterparts. However, in some of the cases, this difference in efficiency is almost indistinguishable. Our findings reveal that compared to their conventional counterparts, Islamic markets do not necessarily need to carry a more deterministic or predictable structure since efficiency in these markets depends mostly on liquidity, market quality, institutional characteristics and the country/continent specific investment behavior.

Suggested Citation

  • Sensoy, Ahmet & Aras, Guler & Hacihasanoglu, Erk, 2015. "Predictability dynamics of Islamic and conventional equity markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 222-248.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:31:y:2015:i:c:p:222-248
    DOI: 10.1016/j.najef.2014.12.001
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    2. El khamlichi, Abdelbari & HOANG, Thi Hong Van & Wong, Wing-Keung, 2017. "Is Gold Different for Islamic and Conventional Portfolios? A Sectorial Analysis," MPRA Paper 76282, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Mensi, Walid & Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2017. "Global financial crisis and weak-form efficiency of Islamic sectoral stock markets: An MF-DFA analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 471(C), pages 135-146.
    4. Hooi Hooi Lean & Vinod Mishra & Russell Smyth, 2015. "Is investing in Islamic stocks profitable? Evidence from the Dow Jones Islamic market indexes," Monash Economics Working Papers 33-15, Monash University, Department of Economics.
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    7. Naifar, Nader, 2016. "Do global risk factors and macroeconomic conditions affect global Islamic index dynamics? A quantile regression approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 29-39.
    8. Charles, Amélie & Darné, Olivier & Kim, Jae H., 2017. "Adaptive markets hypothesis for Islamic stock indices: Evidence from Dow Jones size and sector-indices," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 100-112.
    9. Amélie Charles & Olivier Darné & Jae Kim, 2017. "Adaptive Markets Hypothesis for Islamic Stock Portfolios: Evidence from Dow Jones Size and Sector-Indices," Post-Print hal-01526483, HAL.
    10. Nagayev, Ruslan & Disli, Mustafa & Inghelbrecht, Koen & Ng, Adam, 2016. "On the dynamic links between commodities and Islamic equity," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 125-140.
    11. repec:eee:ecolet:v:161:y:2017:i:c:p:5-9 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Market efficiency; Islamic and conventional equity markets; Permutation entropy; Non-linear predictability; Efficiency ratio;

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C65 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Miscellaneous Mathematical Tools
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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