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Nonlinear Dynamics and Recurrence Plots for Detecting Financial Crisis

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Abstract

Identification of financial bubbles and crisis is a topic of major concern since it is important to prevent collapses that can severely impact nations and economies. Our analysis deals with the use of the recently proposed "delay vector variance" (DVV) method, which examines local predictability of a signal in the phase space to detect the presence of determinism and nonlinearity in a time series. Optimal embedding parameters used in the DVV analysis are obtained via a differential entropy based method using wavelet-based surrogates. We exploit the concept of recurrence plots to study the stock market to locate hidden patterns, non-stationarity, and to examine the nature of these plots in events of financial crisis. In particular, the recurrence plots are employed to detect and characterize financial cycles. A comprehensive analysis of the feasibility of this approach is provided. We show that our methodology is useful in the diagnosis and detection of financial bubbles, which have significantly impacted economic upheavals in the past few decades

Suggested Citation

  • Peter Martey Addo & Monica Billio & Dominique Guegan, 2013. "Nonlinear Dynamics and Recurrence Plots for Detecting Financial Crisis," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 13024, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
  • Handle: RePEc:mse:cesdoc:13024
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    1. Peter Martey Addo & Monica Billio & Dominique Guegan, 2012. "Alternative Methodology for Turning-Point Detection in Business Cycle: A Wavelet Approach," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 12023, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    2. Peter Martey Addo & Monica Billio & Dominique Guegan, 2013. "Understanding Exchange Rates Dynamics," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 13023, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    3. Belaire-Franch, Jorge, 2004. "Testing for non-linearity in an artificial financial market: a recurrence quantification approach," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 483-494, August.
    4. Aizenman, Joshua & Noy, Ilan, 2012. "Overview of the special issue on international finance in the aftermath of the 2008 global crisis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 265-268.
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    Cited by:

    1. Chia-Lin Chang & Allen, David & McAleer, Michael, 2013. "Recent developments in financial economics and econometrics: An overview," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 217-226.
    2. repec:hal:journl:halshs-01169516 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. repec:spr:annopr:v:260:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s10479-016-2215-3 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. repec:eee:ecofin:v:42:y:2017:i:c:p:584-596 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Peter Martey Addo & Philippe De Peretti & Hayette Gatfaoui & Jakob Runge, 2014. "The kiss of information theory that captures systemic risk," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-01110712, HAL.
    6. Sensoy, Ahmet & Aras, Guler & Hacihasanoglu, Erk, 2015. "Predictability dynamics of Islamic and conventional equity markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 222-248.
    7. Peter Martey Addo, 2015. "Coupling direction of the European Banking and Insurance sectors using inter-system recurrence networks," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 15051, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    8. Petre CARAIANI, 2015. "Testing For Nonlinearity In Unemployment Rates Via Delay Vector Variance," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 81-92, March.
    9. Dungey, Mardi & Matei, Marius & Treepongkaruna, Sirimon, 2014. "Identifying periods of financial stress in Asian currencies: the role of high frequency financial market data," Working Papers 2014-12, University of Tasmania, Tasmanian School of Business and Economics.
    10. Peter Martey Addo & Monica Billio & Dominique Guegan, 2013. "Turning point chronology for the Euro-Zone: A Distance Plot Approach," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 13025, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    11. Liu, Yanxin & Li, Johnny Siu-Hang & Ng, Andrew Cheuk-Yin, 2015. "Option pricing under GARCH models with Hansen's skewed-t distributed innovations," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 108-125.
    12. Peter Martey Addo & Philippe De Peretti, 2014. "Detection and quantification of causal dependencies in multivariate time series: a novel information theoretic approach to understanding systemic risk," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 14069, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    13. Chen, Mei-Ping & Lin, Yu-Hui & Tseng, Chun-Yao & Chen, Wen-Yi, 2015. "Bubbles in health care: Evidence from the U.S., U.K., and German stock markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 193-205.
    14. Peter Martey Addo, 2015. "Insights to the European debt crisis using recurrence quantification and network analysis," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 15035, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    15. Emmanuel Numapau Gyamfi & Kwabena A. Kyei, 2016. "Modeling Stock Market Returns under Self-exciting Threshold Autoregressive Model: Evidence from West Africa," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 6(3), pages 1194-1199.
    16. repec:hal:journl:halshs-01164025 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Peter Martey Addo & Monica Billio & Dominique Guegan, 2012. "Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics and Wavelets for Business Cycle Analysis," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 12023r, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne, revised Nov 2013.
    18. Álvarez-Díaz, Marcos & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Gupta, Rangan, 2014. "Detecting predictable non-linear dynamics in Dow Jones Islamic Market and Dow Jones Industrial Average indices using nonparametric regressions," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 22-35.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Nonlinearity analysis; surrogates; Delay vector variance (DVV) method; wavelets; financial bubbles; embedding parameters; recurrence plots;

    JEL classification:

    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C40 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - General
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises

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