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Automatic leading indicators versus macroeconometric structural models: A comparison of inflation and GDP growth forecasting

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  • Qin, Duo
  • Cagas, Marie Anne
  • Ducanes, Geoffrey
  • Magtibay-Ramos, Nedelyn
  • Quising, Pilipinas

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  • Qin, Duo & Cagas, Marie Anne & Ducanes, Geoffrey & Magtibay-Ramos, Nedelyn & Quising, Pilipinas, 2008. "Automatic leading indicators versus macroeconometric structural models: A comparison of inflation and GDP growth forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 399-413.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:24:y:2008:i:3:p:399-413
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    1. Gonzalo Camba-Mendez & George Kapetanios & Richard J. Smith & Martin R. Weale, 2001. "An automatic leading indicator of economic activity: forecasting GDP growth for European countries," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 4(1), pages 1-37.
    2. Franck Sédillot & Nigel Pain, 2003. "Indicator Models of Real GDP Growth in Selected OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 364, OECD Publishing.
    3. Claude Diebolt & Catherine Kyrtsou, 2005. "New Trends in Macroeconomics," Post-Print hal-00279607, HAL.
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    5. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
    6. George Kapetanios, 2002. "Factor Analysis Using Subspace Factor Models: Some Theoretical Results and an Application to UK Inflation Forecasting," Working Papers 466, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    7. Ben D. MacArthur & Richard O. C. Oreffo, 2005. "Bridging the gap," Nature, Nature, vol. 433(7021), pages 19-19, January.
    8. Anindya Banerjee & Massimiliano Marcellino & Igor Masten, 2005. "Leading Indicators for Euro‐area Inflation and GDP Growth," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(s1), pages 785-813, December.
    9. Claude Diebolt & Catherine Kyrtsou (ed.), 2005. "New Trends in Macroeconomics," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-3-540-28556-4, December.
    10. Tao Sun, 2004. "Forecasting Thailand’s Core Inflation," IMF Working Papers 2004/090, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Qin, Duo & Cagas, Marie Anne & Ducanes, Geoffrey & He, Xinhua & Liu, Rui & Liu, Shiguo & Magtibay-Ramos, Nedelyn & Quising, Pilipinas, 2007. "A macroeconometric model of the Chinese economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(5), pages 814-822, September.
    12. Cagas, Marie Anne & Ducanes, Geoffrey & Magtibay-Ramos, Nedelyn & Qin, Duo & Quising, Pilipinas, 2006. "A small macroeconometric model of the Philippine economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 45-55, January.
    13. Michael P. Clements & David F. Hendry, 2002. "Modelling methodology and forecast failure," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 5(2), pages 319-344, June.
    14. Bai, Jushan & Ng, Serena, 2007. "Determining the Number of Primitive Shocks in Factor Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 25, pages 52-60, January.
    15. David F. Hendry, 2005. "Bridging the Gap: Linking Economics and Econometrics," Springer Books, in: Claude Diebolt & Catherine Kyrtsou (ed.), New Trends in Macroeconomics, pages 53-77, Springer.
    16. David F. Hendry, 2004. "Unpredictability and the Foundations of Economic Forecasting," Economics Papers 2004-W15, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
    17. Hendry, David F., 1995. "Dynamic Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198283164.
    18. Kraay, Aart & Monokroussos, George, 1999. "Growth forecasts using time series and growth models," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2224, The World Bank.
    19. Harvey, David & Leybourne, Stephen & Newbold, Paul, 1997. "Testing the equality of prediction mean squared errors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 281-291, June.
    20. George Kapetanios, 2002. "Factor Analysis Using Subspace Factor Models: Some Theoretical Results and an Application to UK Inflation Forecasting," Working Papers 466, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    21. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1989. "New Indexes of Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 351-409, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    2. Juuso Kaaresvirta & Aaron Mehrotra, 2009. "Business surveys and inflation forecasting in China," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 42(4), pages 263-271, November.
    3. Eric Girardin & Konstantin A. Kholodilin, 2011. "How helpful are spatial effects in forecasting the growth of Chinese provinces?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(7), pages 622-643, November.
    4. Harvey, David I. & Leybourne, Stephen J. & Whitehouse, Emily J., 2017. "Forecast evaluation tests and negative long-run variance estimates in small samples," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 833-847.
    5. Rudrani Bhattacharya & Parma Chakravartti & Sudipto Mundle, 2019. "Forecasting India’s economic growth: a time-varying parameter regression approach," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(3), pages 205-228, September.
    6. Golinelli, Roberto & Parigi, Giuseppe, 2014. "Tracking world trade and GDP in real time," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 847-862.
    7. Jordan, Steven J. & Vivian, Andrew & Wohar, Mark E., 2017. "Forecasting market returns: bagging or combining?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 102-120.
    8. Eric Girardin & Konstantin A. Kholodilin, 2011. "How helpful are spatial effects in forecasting the growth of Chinese provinces?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(7), pages 622-643, November.
    9. Amin Gharipour & Morteza Sameti & Ali Yousefian, 2010. "A Comparative Approximate Economic Behavior Analysis of Support Vector Machines and Neural Networks Models," Iranian Economic Review (IER), Faculty of Economics,University of Tehran.Tehran,Iran, vol. 15(2), pages 17-40, spring.
    10. Duo Qin & Qingchao Wang, 2016. "Predictive Macro-Impacts of PLS-based Financial Conditions Indices: An Application to the USA," Working Papers 201, Department of Economics, SOAS University of London, UK.

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