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Indicator Models of Real GDP Growth in Selected OECD Countries

  • Franck Sédillot
  • Nigel Pain

Accurate and timely information on the current state of economic activity is an important requirement for the policymaking process. Delays in the publication of official statistics mean that a complete picture of economic developments within a particular period emerges only some time after that period has elapsed. The research described in this paper develops a set of econometric models that provide estimates of GDP growth for a number of major OECD countries and zones in the two quarters following the last quarter for which official data have been published. These models exploit the considerable amount of monthly conjunctural information that becomes available before the release of official national accounts data. Information is incorporated from both ‘soft’ indicators, such as business surveys, and ‘hard’ indicators, such as industrial production and retail sales, and use is made of different frequencies of data and a variety of estimation techniques. An automated procedure is ... Modèles de prévision de la croissance du PIB réel dans certains pays de l'OCDE, à l'aide d'indicateurs conjoncturels Disposer d’information précise et à jour sur la situation courante de l’économie est une exigence fondamentale dans le processus de décision économique. Les délais dans la publication des statistiques officielles signifient qu’un tableau complet des évolutions économiques au cours d’une période particulière n’est seulement disponible que quelques temps après la fin de cette période. Les travaux décrits dans cet article présentent un ensemble de modèles économétriques permettant d’estimer la croissance du PIB dans certaines grandes économies ou zones de l’OCDE à un horizon de deux trimestres après le dernier trimestre publié. Ces modèles utilisent une masse importante d’information conjoncturelle mensuelle disponible avant la publication des données officielles de comptes nationaux. Cette information provient à la fois d’indicateurs ‘mous’ comme les enquêtes d’opinion ou d’indicateur ‘durs’ comme la production industrielle ou les ventes de détail. Différentes fréquences et méthodes ...

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Paper provided by OECD Publishing in its series OECD Economics Department Working Papers with number 364.

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Date of creation: 22 Jul 2003
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Handle: RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:364-en
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