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Prognose von Umsatz und Bruttowertschöpfung des verarbeitenden Gewerbes in Sachsen für das Jahr 2004 (Prognose der Bruttowertschöpfung des sächsischen verarbeitenden Gewerbes 2004)

  • Gerit Vogt

Im letzten Jahr ist die sächsische Wirtschaft wieder spürbar gewachsen. Das reale Bruttoinlandsprodukt nahm im Vergleich zum Vorjahr um 1,2 % zu. Zeitgleich erhöhte sich die reale Bruttowertschöpfung des verarbeitenden Gewerbes um stattliche 7,0 %. Damit erwies sich das verarbeitende Gewerbe erneut als zentraler Träger der wirtschaftlichen Dynamik in Sachsen. Prognosen der zukünftigen Entwicklung dieses Wirtschaftsbereichs sind daher von besonderer Relevanz. In diesem Artikel wird ein ökonometrisches Prognosemodell für die Bruttowertschöpfung des verarbeitenden Gewerbes in Sachsen vorgestellt. Für das Jahr 2004 prognostiziert das Modell einen Anstieg der Bruttowertschöpfung von 6,2 %.

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File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/page/portal/DocBase_Content/ZS/ZS-ifo_Dresden_berichtet/zs-drber-2004/ifodb_2004_4_23-30.pdf
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Article provided by Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich in its journal ifo Dresden berichtet.

Volume (Year): 11 (2004)
Issue (Month): 04 (08)
Pages: 23-30

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Handle: RePEc:ces:ifodre:v:11:y:2004:i:04:p:23-30
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  1. Tom Stark and Dean Croushore, 2001. "Forecasting with a Real-Time Data Set for Macroeconomists," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 258, Society for Computational Economics.
  2. Franck Sédillot & Nigel Pain, 2003. "Indicator Models of Real GDP Growth in Selected OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 364, OECD Publishing.
  3. Moneta, Fabio, 2003. "Does the yield spread predict recessions in the euro area?," Working Paper Series 0294, European Central Bank.
  4. Hans-Ulrich Brautzsch & Udo Ludwig, 2002. "Vierteljährliche Entstehungsrechnung des Bruttoinlandsprodukts für Ostdeutschland: Sektorale Bruttowertschöpfung," IWH Discussion Papers 164, Halle Institute for Economic Research.
  5. Reinhard Hild, 2004. "Produktion, Wertschöpfung und Beschäftigung im Verarbeitenden Gewerbe," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 57(07), pages 19-27, 04.
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