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Prognose von Umsatz und Bruttowertschöpfung des verarbeitenden Gewerbes in Sachsen für das Jahr 2004 (Prognose der Bruttowertschöpfung des sächsischen verarbeitenden Gewerbes 2004)

Author

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  • Gerit Vogt

Abstract

Im letzten Jahr ist die sächsische Wirtschaft wieder spürbar gewachsen. Das reale Bruttoinlandsprodukt nahm im Vergleich zum Vorjahr um 1,2 % zu. Zeitgleich erhöhte sich die reale Bruttowertschöpfung des verarbeitenden Gewerbes um stattliche 7,0 %. Damit erwies sich das verarbeitende Gewerbe erneut als zentraler Träger der wirtschaftlichen Dynamik in Sachsen. Prognosen der zukünftigen Entwicklung dieses Wirtschaftsbereichs sind daher von besonderer Relevanz. In diesem Artikel wird ein ökonometrisches Prognosemodell für die Bruttowertschöpfung des verarbeitenden Gewerbes in Sachsen vorgestellt. Für das Jahr 2004 prognostiziert das Modell einen Anstieg der Bruttowertschöpfung von 6,2 %.

Suggested Citation

  • Gerit Vogt, 2004. "Prognose von Umsatz und Bruttowertschöpfung des verarbeitenden Gewerbes in Sachsen für das Jahr 2004 (Prognose der Bruttowertschöpfung des sächsischen verarbeitenden Gewerbes 2004)," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 11(04), pages 23-30, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifodre:v:11:y:2004:i:04:p:23-30
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Franck Sédillot & Nigel Pain, 2003. "Indicator Models of Real GDP Growth in Selected OECD Countries," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 364, OECD Publishing.
    2. Stark, Tom & Croushore, Dean, 2002. "Forecasting with a real-time data set for macroeconomists," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 507-531, December.
    3. Moneta, Fabio, 2003. "Does the yield spread predict recessions in the euro area?," Working Paper Series 294, European Central Bank.
    4. Brautzsch, Hans-Ulrich & Ludwig, Udo, 2002. "Vierteljährliche Entstehungsrechnung des Bruttoinlandsprodukts für Ostdeutschland: Sektorale Bruttowertschöpfung," IWH Discussion Papers 164/2002, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    5. Reinhard Hild, 2004. "Produktion, Wertschöpfung und Beschäftigung im Verarbeitenden Gewerbe," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 57(07), pages 19-27, April.
    6. Croushore, Dean & Stark, Tom, 2001. "A real-time data set for macroeconomists," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 111-130, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gerit Vogt, 2009. "Konjunkturprognose in Deutschland. Ein Beitrag zur Prognose der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung auf Bundes- und Länderebene," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 36.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • D24 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Production; Cost; Capital; Capital, Total Factor, and Multifactor Productivity; Capacity
    • L60 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - General

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