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Konjunkturprognose in Deutschland. Ein Beitrag zur Prognose der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung auf Bundes- und Länderebene

  • Gerit Vogt

Die vorliegende Arbeit wurde von Gerit Vogt während seiner Tätigkeit als wissenschaftlicher Mitarbeiter am ifo Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung erstellt und im März 2009 abgeschlossen. Sie wurde im Juli 2009 an der Technischen Universität Dresden als Dissertation angenommen und mit Erfolg verteidigt. Gegenstand der Arbeit ist die Konjunkturprognose in Deutschland. Im Fokus der Ausführungen steht das Bruttoinlandsprodukt als zentrale Konjunktur- und Prognosevariable. Die Arbeit verfolgt im Wesentlichen zwei Ziele. Das erste Ziel ist, ausgehend von der bestehenden Fachliteratur, einen allgemeinen Überblick über die aktuellen Prognoseaktivitäten in Deutschland auf der Bundes- und der Länderebene zu geben. Ein zweites Ziel ist, die vorhandene Literatur mit zwei neuen Ansätzen zu erweitern und damit zum wissenschaftlichen Fortschritt auf diesem Gebiet beizutragen. Zum einen wird untersucht, inwieweit ausgewählte ifo-Konjunkturindikatoren Informationen enthalten, die zur Prognose der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung Deutschlands nützlich sind. Hierbei wird ein Ansatz verwendet, der Datenrevisionen explizit berücksichtigt und damit eine realitätsnahe Beurteilung der Indikatoreigenschaften erlaubt. Zum anderen wird ein an der Dresdner Niederlassung des ifo Instituts entwickeltes Verfahren zur Prognose des sächsischen und ostdeutschen Bruttoinlandsprodukts vorgestellt und auf dessen bisherige Treffgenauigkeit eingegangen.

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This book is provided by Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich in its series ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung with number 36 and published in 2009.
Handle: RePEc:ces:ifobei:36
Contact details of provider: Postal: Poschingerstr. 5, 81679 München
Phone: +49-89-9224-0
Fax: +49-89-985369
Web page: http://www.cesifo-group.de
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