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Economy economic activity 2006: Forecasting and reality

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  • Wolfgang Nierhaus

Abstract

The Ifo Institute constantly examines the accuracy of its own economic forecasts and discusses the reasons for any discrepancies between its forecasts and reality. In 2006 Ifo correctly forecasted the basic tendency of economic activity in Germany. As one of the first economic research institutes, in December 2005 Ifo increased its forecasted GDP for 2006. As expected by the Institute, a strong increase of aggregate output occurred in 2006. The accelerated pace for the year as a whole was correctly forecast by the Ifo Institute. The intensity of the upswing and the labour market developments were even underestimated by the Ifo Institute in December 2005. The average increase in consumer prices was precisely predicted by the Institute.

Suggested Citation

  • Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2007. "Economy economic activity 2006: Forecasting and reality," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 60(02), pages 23-28, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:60:y:2007:i:02:p:23-28
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2006. "Economic activity 2005: forecasting and reality," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 59(02), pages 37-43, January.
    2. Spencer D. Krane, 2003. "An evaluation of real GDP forecasts: 1996-2001," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 27(Q I), pages 2-21.
    3. Nicolas Carnot & Vincent Koen & Bruno Tissot, 2005. "Economic Forecasting," Palgrave Macmillan Books, Palgrave Macmillan, number 978-0-230-00581-5.
    4. Gebhard Flaig & Wolfgang Nierhaus & Anita Dehne & Andrea Gebauer & Steffen Henzel & Oliver Hülsewig & Erich Langmantel & Wolfgang Meister & Monika Ruschinski & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2005. "Ifo Economic Forecast 2006: Upswing in the German Economy," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 58(24), pages 18-54, December.
    5. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 1999. "Aus dem Instrumentenkasten der Konjunkturanalyse : Veränderungen im Vergleich," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 52(27), pages 11-19, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gerit Vogt, 2009. "Konjunkturprognose in Deutschland. Ein Beitrag zur Prognose der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung auf Bundes- und Länderebene," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 36.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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