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International organisations’ vs. private analysts’ forecasts: an evaluation

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  • Ildeberta Abreu

Abstract

This paper evaluates the performance of the macroeconomic forecasts disclosed by three leading international organisations - the IMF, the European Commission and the OECD - and compares it with that of the mean forecasts of two surveys of private analysts - the Consensus Economics and The Economist. The publication of forecasts twice a year by international organisations always receives a great deal of public attention but the timely forecasts disclosed monthly by private institutions have been gaining increased visibility. The aim of this work is to help forecast users in answering the question of how much (little) confidence they should place in the alternative forecasts that are available at each moment. The evaluation covers real GDP growth and inflation projections for nine main advanced economies, over the period 1991-2009. Several evaluation criteria are used. The quantitative accuracy of forecasts is assessed and their unbiasedness and efficiency is tested. The directional accuracy of forecasts and the ability to predict economic recessions are also examined. The results suggest that the forecasting performance of the international organisations is broadly similar to that of the surveys of private analysts. By and large, current-year forecasts present desirable features and clearly outperform year-ahead forecasts for which evidence is more mixed both in terms of quantitative and qualitative accuracy.

Suggested Citation

  • Ildeberta Abreu, 2011. "International organisations’ vs. private analysts’ forecasts: an evaluation," Working Papers w201120, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:ptu:wpaper:w201120
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. El-Shagi, Makram & Giesen, Sebastian & Jung, Alexander, 2012. "Does Central Bank Staff Beat Private Forecasters?," IWH Discussion Papers 5/2012, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    2. Jung, Alexander & El-Shagi, Makram & Giesen, Sebastian, 2014. "Does the federal reserve staff still beat private forecasters?," Working Paper Series 1635, European Central Bank.
    3. Simionescu, Mihaela, 2015. "A Comparative Analysis Of Macroeconomic Forecasts Accuracy In Spain And Romania," UTMS Journal of Economics, University of Tourism and Management, Skopje, Macedonia, vol. 6(1), pages 67-74.

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    JEL classification:

    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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