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Are OECD forecasts rational and useful?: a directional analysis

  • Ash, J. C. K.
  • Smyth, D. J.
  • Heravi, S. M.
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    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal International Journal of Forecasting.

    Volume (Year): 14 (1998)
    Issue (Month): 3 (September)
    Pages: 381-391

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:14:y:1998:i:3:p:381-391
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    1. Smyth, David J & Ash, J C K, 1975. "Forecasting Gross National Product, the Rate of Inflation and the Balance of Trade: The O. E.C.D. Performance," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 85(338), pages 361-64, June.
    2. Antzoulatos, Angelos A., 1994. "The rationality of the OECD foreign-balance forecasts for the USA," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 435-443, November.
    3. Schnader, M H & Stekler, H O, 1990. "Evaluating Predictions of Change," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 63(1), pages 99-107, January.
    4. Ash, J. C. K. & Smyth, D. J. & Heravi, S. M., 1993. "The accuracy of OECD forecasts for Canada and the United States," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(2), pages 179-210.
    5. Pesaran, M.H. & Timmermann, A., 1990. "A Simple Non-Parametric Test Of Predictive Performance," Papers 29, California Los Angeles - Applied Econometrics.
    6. Garcia-Ferrer, Antonio, et al, 1987. "Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Pooled International Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 5(1), pages 53-67, January.
    7. Smyth, David J & Ash, J C K, 1981. "The Underestimation of Forecasts and the Variability of Predictions and Outcomes," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(1), pages 37-44, May.
    8. Ash, J. C. K. & Smyth, D. J. & Heravi, S. M., 1990. "The accuracy of OECD forecasts of the international economy : Demand, output and prices," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 379-392, October.
    9. Mostaghimi, Mehdi & Rezayat, Fahimeh, 1996. "Probability Forecast of Downturn in U.S. Economy Using Classical Statistical Decision Theory," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 255-79.
    10. Lai, Kon S., 1990. "An evaluation of survey exchange rate forecasts," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 61-65, January.
    11. Mittnik, Stefan, 1990. "Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Pooled International Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(2), pages 205-08, April.
    12. Holden, Karen C & Peel, D A & Sandhu, B, 1987. "The Accuracy of OECD Forecasts," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 12(3), pages 175-86.
    13. Cumby, Robert E. & Modest, David M., 1987. "Testing for market timing ability : A framework for forecast evaluation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 169-189, September.
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