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Diagnostics for evaluating the value and rationality of economic forecasts

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  • Stekler, H. O.
  • Petrei, G.

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  • Stekler, H. O. & Petrei, G., 2003. "Diagnostics for evaluating the value and rationality of economic forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 735-742.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:19:y:2003:i:4:p:735-742
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Henriksson, Roy D & Merton, Robert C, 1981. "On Market Timing and Investment Performance. II. Statistical Procedures for Evaluating Forecasting Skills," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 54(4), pages 513-533, October.
    2. Pesaran, M Hashem & Timmermann, Allan, 1992. "A Simple Nonparametric Test of Predictive Performance," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(4), pages 561-565, October.
    3. Cumby, Robert E. & Modest, David M., 1987. "Testing for market timing ability : A framework for forecast evaluation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 169-189, September.
    4. Ash, J. C. K. & Smyth, D. J. & Heravi, S. M., 1998. "Are OECD forecasts rational and useful?: a directional analysis," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 381-391, September.
    5. Schnader, M H & Stekler, H O, 1990. "Evaluating Predictions of Change," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 63(1), pages 99-107, January.
    6. Merton, Robert C, 1981. "On Market Timing and Investment Performance. I. An Equilibrium Theory of Value for Market Forecasts," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 54(3), pages 363-406, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Eva A. Arnold, 2013. "The role of data revisions and disagreement in professional forecasts," NBP Working Papers 153, Narodowy Bank Polski.
    2. Kappler, Marcus, 2007. "Projecting the Medium-Term: Outcomes and Errors for GDP Growth," ZEW Discussion Papers 07-068, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    3. Mitchell, Karlyn & Pearce, Douglas K., 2007. "Professional forecasts of interest rates and exchange rates: Evidence from the Wall Street Journal's panel of economists," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 840-854, December.
    4. Oliver Blaskowitz & Helmut Herwartz, 2008. "Testing directional forecast value in the presence of serial correlation," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2008-073, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.

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