Une comparaison des prévisions des experts à celles issues des modèles B VAR
[eng] A Comparison of Expert Forecasts with BVAR Model Forecasts by Sandrine Lardic and Auguste Mpacko-Priso This paper checks whether economic and financial experts forecast macroeconomic and financial variables «better» than alternative techniques and in particular the Bayesian method. The BVAR methodology, presented in detail in Lardic and Mpacko-Priso (1996) and summarised in this paper, is used to generate six-month and twelve-month forecasts of the Consumer Price Index, Industrial Production Index, Standard and Poors 425, and Standard and Poors 500 for two samples. These forecasts are then compared with economic and financial expert predictions as well as with forecasts derived from traditional techniques for the same periods of time. Statistical and economic criteria are used to gauge the different forecasts. We show that the BVAR forecasts are generally better than the individual expert forecasts. We conclude that the BVAR methodology merits being used more than it is at present. [fre] Une comparaison des prévisions des experts à celles issues des modèles BVAR par Sandrine Lardic et Auguste Mpacko-Priso Cet article a pour objet de tester si les prévisions des variables macro-économiques et financières faites par des professionnels de l'économie et de la finance sont «meilleures» que celles issues de techniques alternatives, notamment bayésiennes. Suivant la méthodologie BVAR, les prévisions sur les horizons de six et douze mois des variables Indice des Prix à la Consommation, Indice de la Production Industrielle et Indice Standard and Pors 425 ou Standard and Poors 500 sont générées pour deux échantillons distincts. Ces prévisions sont ensuite comparées à celles des experts de l'économie et de la finance d'une part et à celles issues des techniques traditionnelles de prévision d'autre part. Cette comparaison repose à la fois sur des critères statistiques et économiques.
Volume (Year): 140 (1999)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.persee.fr/collection/ecop|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Robert B. Litterman, 1984. "Forecasting and policy analysis with Bayesian vector autoregression models," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall.
- Richard M. Todd, 1984. "Improving economic forecasting with Bayesian vector autoregression," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall.
- Lakonishok, Josef, 1980. " Stock Market Return Expectations: Some General Properties," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 35(4), pages 921-31, September.
- Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
- Kwiatkowski, D. & Phillips, P.C.B. & Schmidt, P., 1990.
"Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of Unit Root : How Sure are we that Economic Time Series have a Unit Root?,"
8905, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
- Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
- Denis Kwiatkowski & Peter C.B. Phillips & Peter Schmidt, 1991. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root: How Sure Are We That Economic Time Series Have a Unit Root?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 979, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
- Hossain Amirizadeh & Richard M. Todd, 1984. "More growth ahead for Ninth District states," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall.
- Kunst, Robert & Neusser, Klaus, 1986. "A forecasting comparison of some var techniques," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 447-456.
- Robert B. Litterman & Thomas M. Supel, 1983. "Using vector autoregressions to measure the uncertainty in Minnesota's revenue forecasts," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Spr.
- Lesage, James P., 1989. "Incorporating regional wage relations in local forecasting models with a Bayesian prior," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 37-47.
- David Ahlers & Josef Lakonishok, 1983. "A Study of Economists' Consensus Forecasts," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 29(10), pages 1113-1125, October.
- Artis, M. J. & Zhang, W., 1990. "BVAR forecasts for the G-7," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 349-362, October.
- Pearce, Douglas K, 1984. "An Empirical Analysis of Expected Stock Price Movements," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 16(3), pages 317-27, August.
- Cumby, Robert E. & Modest, David M., 1987. "Testing for market timing ability : A framework for forecast evaluation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 169-189, September.
- Holden, K. & Broomhead, A., 1990. "An examination of vector autoregressive forecasts for the U.K. economy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 11-23.
- Fair, Ray C & Shiller, Robert J, 1990. "Comparing Information in Forecasts from Econometric Models," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 375-89, June.
- Garcia-Ferrer, Antonio, et al, 1987. "Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Pooled International Data," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 5(1), pages 53-67, January.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:prs:ecoprv:ecop_0249-4744_1999_num_140_4_5982. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Equipe PERSEE)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.