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Aggregate and disaggregate sector forecasting using consumer confidence measures

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  • Kumar, V.
  • Leone, Robert P.
  • Gaskins, John N.

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  • Kumar, V. & Leone, Robert P. & Gaskins, John N., 1995. "Aggregate and disaggregate sector forecasting using consumer confidence measures," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 361-377, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:11:y:1995:i:3:p:361-377
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Foekens, Eijte W. & Leeflang, Peter S. H. & Wittink, Dick R., 1994. "A comparison and an exploration of the forecasting accuracy of a loglinear model at different levels of aggregation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 245-261, September.
    2. LeSage, James P. & Magura, Michael, 1991. "Using interindustry input-output relations as a Bayesian prior in employment forecasting models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 231-238, August.
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    5. Frank M. Bass & Robert P. Leone, 1983. "Temporal Aggregation, the Data Interval Bias, and Empirical Estimation of Bimonthly Relations from Annual Data," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 29(1), pages 1-11, January.
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    7. F. Thomas Juster & Paul Wachtel, 1974. "Anticipatory and Objective Models of Durable Goods Demand," NBER Chapters,in: Explorations in Economic Research, Volume 1, number 2, pages 136-188 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Aksu, Celal & Narayan, Jack Y., 1991. "Forecasting with vector ARMA and state space methods," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 7(1), pages 17-30, May.
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    10. van Raaij, W. Fred, 1989. "Economic news, expectations and macro-economic behaviour," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 473-493.
    11. Kumar, V. & Heath, Timothy B., 1990. "A comparative study of market share models using disaggregate data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 6(2), pages 163-174, July.
    12. Holden, K. & Broomhead, A., 1990. "An examination of vector autoregressive forecasts for the U.K. economy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 6(1), pages 11-23.
    13. John W. Keating, 1992. "Structural approaches to vector autoregressions," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Sep, pages 37-57.
    14. Danaher, Peter J. & Brodie, Roderick J., 1992. "Predictive accuracy of simple versus complex econometric market share models: Theoretical and empirical results," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 613-626, December.
    15. Armstrong, J. Scott & Collopy, Fred, 1992. "Error measures for generalizing about forecasting methods: Empirical comparisons," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 69-80, June.
    16. Funke, Michael, 1990. "Assessing the forecasting accuracy of monthly vector autoregressive models : The case of five OECD countries," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 363-378, October.
    17. Van Raaij, W. Fred & Gianotten, Henk J., 1990. "Consumer confidence, expenditure, saving, and credit," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 269-290, June.
    18. Fildes, Robert, 1992. "The evaluation of extrapolative forecasting methods," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 81-98, June.
    19. Spencer, David E., 1993. "Developing a Bayesian vector autoregression forecasting model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 407-421, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Lamey, L. & Deleersnyder, B. & Dekimpe, M.G. & Steenkamp, J-B.E.M., 2005. "The Impact of Business-Cycle Fluctuations on Private-Label Share," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2005-061-MKT, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
    2. Ribeiro Ramos, Francisco Fernando, 2003. "Forecasts of market shares from VAR and BVAR models: a comparison of their accuracy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 95-110.
    3. Paradiso, Antonio & Kumar, Saten & Margani, Patrizia, 2014. "Are Italian consumer confidence adjustments asymmetric? A macroeconomic and psychological motives approach," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 48-63.
    4. Deleersnyder, B. & Dekimpe, M.G. & Sarvary, M. & Parker, P.M., 2003. "Weathering Tight Economic Times: The Sales Evolution Of Consumer Durables Over The Business Cycle," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2003-046-MKT, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
    5. Lemmens, A. & Croux, C. & Dekimpe, M.G., 2007. "Consumer confidence in Europe : United in diversity," Other publications TiSEM ea8c3268-2c0b-4fcc-9d4a-6, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    6. Sarah Gelper & Aurelie Lemmens & Christophe Croux, 2007. "Consumer sentiment and consumer spending: decomposing the Granger causal relationship in the time domain," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(1), pages 1-11.
    7. Arindam Mandal & Joseph McCollum, 2013. "Consumer Confidence and the Unemployment Rate in New York State: A Panel Study," New York Economic Review, New York State Economics Association (NYSEA), pages 3-19.
    8. Grewal, Rajdeep & Mills, Jeffrey A. & Mehta, Raj & Mujumdar, Sudesh, 2001. "Using cointegration analysis for modeling marketing interactions in dynamic environments: methodological issues and an empirical illustration," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 127-144, February.
    9. Gelper, S. & Lemmens, A. & Croux, C., 2007. "Consumer sentiment and consumer spending : Decomposing the granger causal relationship in the time domain," Other publications TiSEM 55ac7230-2985-41f1-a42c-7, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    10. Piotr BiaƂowolski, 2015. "Concepts of Confidence in Tendency Survey Research: An Assessment with Multi-group Confirmatory Factor Analysis," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 123(1), pages 281-302, August.
    11. Roberto Golinelli & Giuseppe Parigi, 2003. "What is this thing called confidence? A comparative analysis of consumer confidence indices in eight major countries," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 484, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    12. Roos, Michael W.M., 2008. "Willingness to consume and ability to consume," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 66(2), pages 387-402, May.
    13. Dion, David Pascal, 2006. "Does Consumer Confidence Forecast Household Spending? The Euro Area Case," MPRA Paper 911, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Hojin Jung & Minjae Park & Kihoon Hong & Eunjung Hyun, 2016. "The Impact of an Epidemic Outbreak on Consumer Expenditures:An Empirical Assessment for MERS Korea," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 8(5), pages 1-15, May.
    15. Lemmens, A. & Croux, C. & Dekimpe, M.G., 2005. "The European Consumer: United In Diversity?," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2005-022-MKT, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
    16. repec:gam:jsusta:v:8:y:2016:i:5:p:454:d:69575 is not listed on IDEAS

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