IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedlwp/1987-004.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

On the sensitivity of VAR forecasts to alternative lag structures

Author

Listed:
  • Rik Hafer
  • Richard G. Sheehan

Abstract

No abstract is available for this item.

Suggested Citation

  • Rik Hafer & Richard G. Sheehan, 1987. "On the sensitivity of VAR forecasts to alternative lag structures," Working Papers 1987-004, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:1987-004
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://research.stlouisfed.org/wp/1987/1987-004.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Comparison of Interwar and Postwar Business Cycles: Monetarism Reconsidered," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(2), pages 250-257, May.
    2. Thornton, Daniel L & Batten, Dallas S, 1985. "Lag-Length Selection and Tests of Granger Causality between Money and Income," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 17(2), pages 164-178, May.
    3. Lupoletti, William M & Webb, Roy H, 1986. "Defining and Improving the Accuracy of Macroeconomic Forecasts: Contributions from a VAR Model," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(2), pages 263-285, April.
    4. McNees, Stephen K, 1986. "Forecasting Accuracy of Alternative Techniques: A Comparison of U.S. Macroeconomic Forecasts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 4(1), pages 5-15, January.
    5. Cooley, Thomas F. & Leroy, Stephen F., 1985. "Atheoretical macroeconometrics: A critique," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 283-308, November.
    6. Nelson, Charles R & Kang, Heejoon, 1984. "Pitfalls in the Use of Time as an Explanatory Variable in Regression," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 2(1), pages 73-82, January.
    7. Litterman, Robert B, 1986. "Forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregressions-Five Years of Experience," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 4(1), pages 25-38, January.
    8. Stulz, Rene M. & Wasserfallen, Walter, 1985. "Macroeconomic time-series, business cycles and macroeconomic policies," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 9-53, January.
    9. Edward Offenbacher & Richard D. Porter & Georg Rich, 1983. "Empirical comparisons of credit and monetary aggregates using vector autoregressive methods," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, vol. 69(Nov), pages 16-29.
    10. Geweke, John F & Meese, Richard, 1981. "Estimating Regression Models of Finite but Unknown Order," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 22(1), pages 55-70, February.
    11. Robert J. Gordon & Stephen R. King, 1982. "The Output Cost of Disinflation in Traditional and Vector Autoregressive Models," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 13(1), pages 205-244.
    12. Stanley Fischer, 1981. "Relative Shocks, Relative Price Variability, and Inflation," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 12(2), pages 381-442.
    13. Fackler, James S & Krieger, Sandra C, 1986. "An Application of Vector Time Series Techniques to Macroeconomic Forecasting," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 4(1), pages 71-80, January.
    14. Litterman, Robert, 1986. "Forecasting with Bayesian vector autoregressions -- Five years of experience : Robert B. Litterman, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 4 (1986) 25-38," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 497-498.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. repec:lan:wpaper:470 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Kim, Jae H., 1999. "Asymptotic and bootstrap prediction regions for vector autoregression," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 393-403, October.
    3. Victor Zarnowitz, 1986. "The Record and Improvability of Economic Forecasting," NBER Working Papers 2099, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. David E. Runkle, 1987. "Vector autoregressions and reality," Staff Report 107, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    5. Roy H. Webb, 1999. "Two approaches to macroeconomic forecasting," Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, issue Sum, pages 23-40.
    6. repec:lan:wpaper:425 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Fackler, Paul L., 1988. "Vector Autoregressive Techniques for Structural Analysis," Department of Economics and Business - Archive 259427, North Carolina State University, Department of Economics.
    8. repec:lan:wpaper:539557 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. repec:lan:wpaper:413 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Fildes, Robert & Stekler, Herman, 2002. "The state of macroeconomic forecasting," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 435-468, December.
    11. Gossé, Jean-Baptiste & Guillaumin, Cyriac, 2013. "L’apport de la représentation VAR de Christopher A. Sims à la science économique," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 89(4), pages 309-319, Décembre.
    12. Christopher A. Sims, 1993. "A Nine-Variable Probabilistic Macroeconomic Forecasting Model," NBER Chapters, in: Business Cycles, Indicators, and Forecasting, pages 179-212, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Dan S. Rickman, 2010. "Modern Macroeconomics And Regional Economic Modeling," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(1), pages 23-41, February.
    14. Karlsson, Sune, 2013. "Forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregression," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 791-897, Elsevier.
    15. Terrence Kinal & Jonathan Ratner, 1986. "A VAR Forecasting Model of a Regional Economy: Its Construction and Comparative Accuracy," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 10(2), pages 113-126, August.
    16. Robert Litterman, 1987. "The Limits of Counter-Cyclical Monetary Policy: an Analysis Based on Optimal Control Theory and Vector Autoregressions," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 6-7, pages 125-160.
    17. Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Liew Khim Sen, 2003. "The Predictability of ASEAN-5 Exchange Rates," International Finance 0307004, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Ford, Stephen A., 1986. "A Beginner'S Guide To Vector Autoregression," Staff Papers 13527, University of Minnesota, Department of Applied Economics.
    19. Sidika Gulfem Bayram, 2017. "Rational–Irrational Investor Sentiments and Emerging Stock Market Returns: A Comparison from Turkey," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 16(3), pages 219-245, December.
    20. Pami Dua & Anirvan Banerji & Stephen M. Miller, 2006. "Performance evaluation of the New Connecticut Leading Employment Index using lead profiles and BVAR models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(6), pages 415-437.
    21. Villani, Mattias, 2001. "Bayesian prediction with cointegrated vector autoregressions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 585-605.
    22. Simkins, Scott, 1995. "Forecasting with vector autoregressive (VAR) models subject to business cycle restrictions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 11(4), pages 569-583, December.
    23. Hasan, Mohammad S. & Taghavi, Majid, 2002. "Residential investment, macroeconomic activity and financial deregulation in the UK: an empirical investigation," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 447-462.
    24. Pami Dua & Stephen M. Miller & David J. Smyth, 1996. "Using Leading Indicators to Forecast US Home Sales in a Bayesian VAR Framework," Working papers 1996-08, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedlwp:1987-004. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Anna Oates (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbslus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.