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Forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregressions

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  • Karlsson, Sune

    () (Department of Business, Economics, Statistics and Informatics)

Abstract

Prepared for the Handbook of Economic Forecasting, vol 2 This chapter reviews Bayesian methods for inference and forecasting with VAR models. Bayesian inference and, by extension, forecasting depends on numerical methods for simulating from the posterior distribution of the parameters and spe- cial attention is given to the implementation of the simulation algorithm.

Suggested Citation

  • Karlsson, Sune, 2012. "Forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregressions," Working Papers 2012:12, Örebro University, School of Business.
  • Handle: RePEc:hhs:oruesi:2012_012
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    16. Petrevski, Goran & Exterkate, Peter & Tevdovski, Dragan & Bogoev, Jane, 2015. "The transmission of foreign shocks to South Eastern European economies: A Bayesian VAR approach," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 632-643.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Markov chain Monte Carlo; Structural VAR; Cointegration; Condi- tional forecasts; Time-varying parameters; Stochastic volatility; Model selection; Large VAR;

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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