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Can forecasting performance be improved by considering the steady state? An application to Swedish inflation and interest rate

Author Info

Listed author(s):
  • Pär Österholm

    (Sveriges Riksbank and Department of Economics, Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden)

Abstract

This paper investigates whether the forecasting performance of Bayesian autoregressive and vector autoregressive models can be improved by incorporating prior beliefs on the steady state of the time series in the system. Traditional methodology is compared to the new framework-in which a mean-adjusted form of the models is employed-by estimating the models on Swedish inflation and interest rate data from 1980 to 2004. Results show that the out-of-sample forecasting ability of the models is practically unchanged for inflation but significantly improved for the interest rate when informative prior distributions on the steady state are provided. The findings in this paper imply that this new methodology could be useful since it allows us to sharpen our forecasts in the presence of potential pitfalls such as near unit root processes and structural breaks, in particular when relying on small samples. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1002/for.1041
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Article provided by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. in its journal Journal of Forecasting.

Volume (Year): 27 (2008)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 41-51

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Handle: RePEc:jof:jforec:v:27:y:2008:i:1:p:41-51
DOI: 10.1002/for.1041
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www3.interscience.wiley.com/cgi-bin/jhome/2966

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  1. Richard Luger, 2004. "Exact Tests of Equal Forecast Accuracy with an Application to the Term Structure of Interest Rates," Staff Working Papers 04-2, Bank of Canada.
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  8. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
  9. Robertson, John C & Tallman, Ellis W, 2001. "Improving Federal-Funds Rate Forecasts in VAR Models Used for Policy Analysis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(3), pages 324-330, July.
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  11. Rose, Andrew Kenan, 1988. " Is the Real Interest Rate Stable?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 43(5), pages 1095-1112, December.
  12. Stark, Tom & Croushore, Dean, 2002. "Reply to the comments on 'Forecasting with a real-time data set for macroeconomists'," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 563-567, December.
  13. Litterman, Robert B, 1986. "Forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregressions-Five Years of Experience," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 4(1), pages 25-38, January.
  14. Hubrich, Kirstin, 2005. "Forecasting euro area inflation: Does aggregating forecasts by HICP component improve forecast accuracy?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 119-136.
  15. Clements, Michael P. & Galvao, Ana Beatriz, 2004. "A comparison of tests of nonlinear cointegration with application to the predictability of US interest rates using the term structure," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 219-236.
  16. Andrew Atkeson & Lee E. Ohanian, 2001. "Are Phillips curves useful for forecasting inflation?," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Win, pages 2-11.
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Cited by:

  1. SENBETA, Sisay Regassa, 2012. "How important are external shocks in explaining growth in Sub-Saharan Africa? Evidence from a Bayesian VAR," Working Papers 2012010, University of Antwerp, Faculty of Applied Economics.
  2. Rupa Duttagupta & N. Barrera, 2010. "The Impact of the Global Crisis on Canada—What Do Macro-Financial Linkages Tell Us?," IMF Working Papers 10/5, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Karlsson, Sune, 2013. "Forecasting with Bayesian Vector Autoregression," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier.
  4. Helge Berger & Pär Österholm, 2011. "Does Money Growth Granger Cause Inflation in the Euro Area? Evidence from Out‐of‐Sample Forecasts Using Bayesian VARs," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 87(276), pages 45-60, March.
  5. Pär Österholm, 2010. "Improving Unemployment Rate Forecasts Using Survey Data," Finnish Economic Papers, Finnish Economic Association, vol. 23(1), pages 16-26, Spring.
  6. Lisandro Abrego & Pär Österholm, 2010. "External Linkages and Economic Growth in Colombia: Insights from a Bayesian VAR Model," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(12), pages 1788-1810, December.
  7. Berger, Helge & Österholm, Pär, 2008. "Does money growth granger-cause inflation in the Euro Area? Evidence from output-of-sample forecasts using Bayesian VARs," Discussion Papers 2008/10, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.

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