Forecasting with Medium and Large Bayesian VARs
This paper is motivated by the recent interest in the use of Bayesian VARs for forecasting, even in cases where the number of dependent variables is large. In such cases, factor methods have been traditionally used but recent work using a particular prior suggests that Bayesian VAR methods can forecast better. In this paper, we consider a range of alternative priors which have been used with small VARs, discuss the issues which arise when they are used with medium and large VARs and examine their forecast performance using a US macroeconomic data set containing 168 variables. We ?nd that Bayesian VARs do tend to forecast better than factor methods and provide an extensive comparison of the strengths and weaknesses of various approaches. Our empirical results show the importance of using forecast metrics which use the entire predictive density, instead of using only point forecasts.
|Date of creation:||Jan 2010|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.rcfea.org
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Thomas Doan & Robert B. Litterman & Christopher A. Sims, 1986.
"Forecasting and conditional projection using realistic prior distribution,"
93, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Thomas Doan & Robert B. Litterman & Christopher A. Sims, 1983. "Forecasting and Conditional Projection Using Realistic Prior Distributions," NBER Working Papers 1202, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- George, Edward I. & Sun, Dongchu & Ni, Shawn, 2008. "Bayesian stochastic search for VAR model restrictions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 553-580, January.
- Kadiyala, K. Rao & Karlsson, Sune, 1994.
"Numerical Aspects of Bayesian VAR-modeling,"
SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance
12, Stockholm School of Economics.
- Kadiyala, K Rao & Karlsson, Sune, 1997. "Numerical Methods for Estimation and Inference in Bayesian VAR-Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(2), pages 99-132, March-Apr.
- Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 2002. "Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Diffusion Indexes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(2), pages 147-62, April.
- Poirier, Dale J., 1998. "Revising Beliefs In Nonidentified Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(04), pages 483-509, August.
- Marta Banbura & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2010.
"Large Bayesian vector auto regressions,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 71-92.
- Bańbura, Marta & Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2008. "Large Bayesian VARs," Working Paper Series 0966, European Central Bank.
- Martha Banbura & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2008. "Large Bayesian VARs," Working Papers ECARES 2008_033, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Domenico Giannone & Martha Banbura & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2008. "Bayesian VARs with large panels," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/13388, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Banbura, Marta & Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2007. "Bayesian VARs with Large Panels," CEPR Discussion Papers 6326, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Marc Hallin & Mario Forni & Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2003.
"Do financial variables help forecasting inflation and real activity in the Euro area ?,"
ULB Institutional Repository
2013/2123, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Forni, Mario & Hallin, Marc & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2003. "Do financial variables help forecasting inflation and real activity in the euro area?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(6), pages 1243-1255, September.
- Forni, Mario & Hallin, Marc & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2002. "Do Financial Variables Help Forecasting Inflation and Real Activity in the Euro Area?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3146, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1997.
"Monetary policy shocks: what have we learned and to what end?,"
Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues
WP-97-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
- Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L., 1999. "Monetary policy shocks: What have we learned and to what end?," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 65-148 Elsevier.
- Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1998. "Monetary Policy Shocks: What Have We Learned and to What End?," NBER Working Papers 6400, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Marcellino, Massimiliano & Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 2006.
"A comparison of direct and iterated multistep AR methods for forecasting macroeconomic time series,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 135(1-2), pages 499-526.
- Massimiliano Marcellino & James Stock & Mark Watson, 2005. "A Comparison of Direct and Iterated Multistep AR Methods for Forecasting Macroeconomic Time Series," Working Papers 285, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
- Marcellino, Massimiliano & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 2005. "A Comparison of Direct and Iterated Multistep AR Methods for Forecasting Macroeconomic Time Series," CEPR Discussion Papers 4976, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Marta Bańbura, 2008.
"Large Bayesian VARs,"
2008 Meeting Papers
334, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Litterman, Robert, 1986. "Forecasting with Bayesian vector autoregressions -- Five years of experience : Robert B. Litterman, Journal of Business and Economic Statistics 4 (1986) 25-38," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 2(4), pages 497-498.
- Jochmann, Markus & Koop, Gary & Strachan, Rodney W., 2010.
"Bayesian forecasting using stochastic search variable selection in a VAR subject to breaks,"
International Journal of Forecasting,
Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 326-347, April.
- Gary Koop & Markus Jochmann & Rodney W. Strachan, 2008. "Bayesian Forecasting using Stochastic Search Variable Selection in a VAR Subject to Breaks," Working Paper Series 19-08, The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, revised Jan 2008.
- Korobilis, Dimitris, 2008. "Forecasting in vector autoregressions with many predictors," MPRA Paper 21122, University Library of Munich, Germany.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rim:rimwps:43_10. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dimitrios Vortelinos)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.