IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Large Bayesian VARs

  • Martha Banbura
  • Domenico Giannone
  • Lucrezia Reichlin

This paper shows that Vector Autoregression with Bayesian shrinkage is an appropriate tool for large dynamic models. We build on the results by De Mol, Giannone, and Reichlin (2008) and show that, when the degree of shrinkage is set in relation to the cross-sectional dimension, the forecasting performance of small monetary VARs can be improved by adding additional macroeconomic variables and sectoral information. In addition, we show that large VARs with shrinkage produce credible impulse responses and are suitable for structural analysis.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: https://dipot.ulb.ac.be/dspace/bitstream/2013/54095/1/RePEc_eca_wpaper_2008_033.pdf
File Function: RePEc_eca_wpaper_2008_033
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles in its series Working Papers ECARES with number 2008_033.

as
in new window

Length: 37 p.
Date of creation: 2008
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published by:
Handle: RePEc:eca:wpaper:2008_033
Contact details of provider: Postal: Av. F.D., Roosevelt, 39, 1050 Bruxelles
Phone: (32 2) 650 30 75
Fax: (32 2) 650 44 75
Web page: http://difusion.ulb.ac.be

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Jean Boivin & Serena Ng, 2005. "Understanding and Comparing Factor-Based Forecasts," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 1(3), December.
  2. Thomas Doan & Robert B. Litterman & Christopher A. Sims, 1983. "Forecasting and Conditional Projection Using Realistic Prior Distributions," NBER Working Papers 1202, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin & David H Small, 2007. "Nowcasting GDP and Inflation: The Real-Time Informational Content of Macroeconomic Data Releases," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 164, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  4. Lucrezia Reichlin & Domenico Giannone & Luca Sala, . "Monetary policy in real time," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/10177, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    • Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin & Luca Sala, 2005. "Monetary Policy in Real Time," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2004, Volume 19, pages 161-224 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. John C. Robertson & Ellis W. Tallman, 1999. "Vector autoregressions: forecasting and reality," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue Q1, pages 4-18.
  6. Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L, 1995. "Some Empirical Evidence on the Effects of Shocks to Monetary Policy on Exchange Rates," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(4), pages 975-1009, November.
  7. Canova, Fabio & Ciccarelli, Matteo, 2001. "Forecasting and Turning Point Predictions in a Bayesian Panel VAR Model," CEPR Discussion Papers 2961, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Sims, Christopher A & Zha, Tao, 1998. "Bayesian Methods for Dynamic Multivariate Models," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 949-68, November.
  9. Dees, S. & di Mauro, F. & Pesaran, M.H. & Smith, L.V., 2005. "Exploring the International Linkages of the Euro Area: a Global VAR Analysis," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0518, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  10. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L., 1999. "Monetary policy shocks: What have we learned and to what end?," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 65-148 Elsevier.
  11. Kim, Soyoung, 2001. "International transmission of U.S. monetary policy shocks: Evidence from VAR's," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 339-372, October.
  12. Ben Bernanke & Jean Boivin & Piotr S. Eliasz, 2005. "Measuring the Effects of Monetary Policy: A Factor-augmented Vector Autoregressive (FAVAR) Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 120(1), pages 387-422, January.
  13. D'Agostino, Antonello & Giannone, Domenico, 2007. "Comparing Alternative Predictors Based on Large-Panel Factor Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 6564, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  14. Mario Forni & Domenico Giannone & Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2008. "Opening the Black Box: Structural Factor Models with Large Cross-Sections," Working Papers ECARES 2008_036, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  15. Forni, Mario & Hallin, Marc & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 1999. "The Generalized Dynamic Factor Model: Identification and Estimation," CEPR Discussion Papers 2338, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  16. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2005. "Implications of Dynamic Factor Models for VAR Analysis," NBER Working Papers 11467, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Massimiliano Marcellino & Carlo A. Favero & Francesca Neglia, 2005. "Principal components at work: the empirical analysis of monetary policy with large data sets," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(5), pages 603-620.
  18. Harald Uhlig, 2004. "What moves GNP?," Econometric Society 2004 North American Winter Meetings 636, Econometric Society.
  19. Forni, Mario & Hallin, Marc & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2002. "The Generalized Dynamic Factor Model: One-Sided Estimation and Forecasting," CEPR Discussion Papers 3432, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  20. Robert B. Litterman, 1985. "Forecasting with Bayesian vector autoregressions five years of experience," Working Papers 274, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  21. Eric M. Leeper & Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 1996. "What Does Monetary Policy Do?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 27(2), pages 1-78.
  22. Ben S. Bernanke & Jean Boivin, 2001. "Monetary Policy in a Data-Rich Environment," NBER Working Papers 8379, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  23. Mackowiak, Bartosz, 2006. "What does the Bank of Japan do to East Asia?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 253-270, September.
  24. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 2003. "Macroeconomic forecasting in the Euro area: Country specific versus area-wide information," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 1-18, February.
  25. Forni, Mario & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2003. "Opening the Black Box: Structural Factor Models versus Structural VARs," CEPR Discussion Papers 4133, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  26. Marc Hallin & Mario Forni & Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2003. "Do financial variables help forecasting inflation and real activity in the Euro area ?," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/2123, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
  27. Litterman, Robert B, 1986. "A Statistical Approach to Economic Forecasting," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 4(1), pages 1-4, January.
  28. De Mol, Christine & Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2006. "Forecasting using a large number of predictors: Is Bayesian regression a valid alternative to principal components?," Working Paper Series 0700, European Central Bank.
  29. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 2002. "Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Diffusion Indexes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(2), pages 147-62, April.
  30. Marco Del Negro & Frank Schorfheide, 2002. "Priors from general equilibrium models for VARs," Working Paper 2002-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  31. Raffaella Giacomini & Halbert White, 2006. "Tests of Conditional Predictive Ability," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(6), pages 1545-1578, November.
  32. Giannone, Domenico & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2006. "Does Information Help Recovering Structural Shocks from Past Observations?," CEPR Discussion Papers 5725, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  33. David B. Gordon & Eric M. Leeper, 1992. "The dynamic impacts of monetary policy: an exercise in tentative identification," Working Paper 92-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  34. Canova, Fabio, 1991. "The Sources of Financial Crisis: Pre- and Post-Fed Evidence," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 32(3), pages 689-713, August.
  35. Mackowiak, Bartosz, 2007. "External shocks, U.S. monetary policy and macroeconomic fluctuations in emerging markets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(8), pages 2512-2520, November.
  36. Christiano, Lawrence J & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles, 1996. "The Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks: Evidence from the Flow of Funds," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 16-34, February.
  37. Stock J.H. & Watson M.W., 2002. "Forecasting Using Principal Components From a Large Number of Predictors," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 97, pages 1167-1179, December.
  38. Kadiyala, K Rao & Karlsson, Sune, 1997. "Numerical Methods for Estimation and Inference in Bayesian VAR-Models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(2), pages 99-132, March-Apr.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eca:wpaper:2008_033. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Benoit Pauwels)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.