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Does Bayesian Shrinkage Help to Better Reflect What Happened During the Subprime Crisis?

Author

Listed:
  • Ilyes Abid

  • Khaled Guesmi

  • Olfa Kaabia

    (EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract

We study the contagion effects of a U.S. housing shock on OECD countries over the period of the subprime crisis. Considering a large database containing national macroeconomic, financial, and trade dynamic variables for 17 OECD countries, we evaluate forecasting accuracy, and perform a structural analysis exercise using VAR models of different sizes: a standard VAR estimated by OLS and a MEDIUM and LARGE VARs estimated by a Bayesian shrinkage procedure. Our main findings are that: First, the largest specification outperforms the smallest one in terms of forecast accuracy. Second, the MEDIUM VAR outperforms both the LARGE BVAR and the SMALL VAR in the case of structural analysis. So the MEDIUM VAR is sufficient to provide plausible impulse responses, and reproduce more realistically what happened during the subprime crisis. Third, the Bayesian shrinkage procedure is preferable to the standard OLS estimation in the case of an international contagion study.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Ilyes Abid & Khaled Guesmi & Olfa Kaabia, 2012. "Does Bayesian Shrinkage Help to Better Reflect What Happened During the Subprime Crisis?," Post-Print hal-01410674, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01410674
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    Cited by:

    1. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Khaled Guesmi & Nabila BOUKEF JLASSI & Ahmed Atil & Imen Haouet, 2016. "On the Influence of Oil Prices on Financial Variables," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(4), pages 2261-2274.
    3. Kaabia, Olfa & Abid, Ilyes & Mkaouar, Farid, 2016. "The dark side of the black gold shock onto Europe: One stock's joy is another stock's sorrow," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 642-654.
    4. Chen, Guojin & Hong, Zhiwu & Ren, Yu, 2016. "Durable consumption and asset returns: Cointegration analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 231-244.
    5. Miyakoshi, Tatsuyoshi & Takahashi, Toyoharu & Shimada, Junji & Tsukuda, Yoshihiko, 2014. "The dynamic contagion of the global financial crisis into Japanese markets," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 47-53.
    6. Guidolin, Massimo & Hansen, Erwin & Pedio, Manuela, 2019. "Cross-asset contagion in the financial crisis: A Bayesian time-varying parameter approach," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 83-114.
    7. Shen, Junjie & Huang, Shupei, 2022. "Copper cross-market volatility transition based on a coupled hidden Markov model and the complex network method," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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