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The Sources of Financial Crisis: Pre- and Post-Fed Evidence

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  • Canova, Fabio

Abstract

This paper investigates the generation and the propagation mechanism of currency demand and supply shocks before and after World War I, the structural determinants of the variability of stock prices and interest rates, and the changes introduced by the creation of the Fed on the dynamics of the system. It is shown that in the pre-1914 era external monetary shocks interacted with a seasonal demand for money to produce financial crises. The Fed helped to prevent crises by insulating the U.S. economy from external shocks. A structural vector autoregressive model provides evidence for these claims. Copyright 1991 by Economics Department of the University of Pennsylvania and the Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association.

Suggested Citation

  • Canova, Fabio, 1991. "The Sources of Financial Crisis: Pre- and Post-Fed Evidence," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 32(3), pages 689-713, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:ier:iecrev:v:32:y:1991:i:3:p:689-713
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    Cited by:

    1. Nason, James M. & Tallman, Ellis W., 2015. "Business Cycles And Financial Crises: The Roles Of Credit Supply And Demand Shocks," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(04), pages 836-882, June.
    2. Choi, Woon Gyu & Kang, Taesu & Kim, Geun-Young & Lee, Byongju, 2017. "Global liquidity transmission to emerging market economies, and their policy responses," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, pages 153-166.
    3. R. Alton Gilbert, 1998. "Did the Fed's founding improve the efficiency of the U.S. payments system?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 121-142.
    4. Simone Auer, 2014. "Monetary Policy Shocks and Foreign Investment Income: Evidence from a large Bayesian VAR," Working Papers 2014-02, Swiss National Bank.
    5. Marta Banbura & Domenico Giannone & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2010. "Large Bayesian vector auto regressions," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(1), pages 71-92.
    6. Fady Barsoum, 2013. "The Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks on a Panel of Stock Market Volatilities: A Factor-Augmented Bayesian VAR Approach," Working Paper Series of the Department of Economics, University of Konstanz 2013-15, Department of Economics, University of Konstanz.
    7. Ellis W. Tallman & Jon R. Moen, 1990. "Lessons from the panic of 1907," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issue May, pages 2-13.
    8. Marta Bańbura, 2008. "Large Bayesian VARs," 2008 Meeting Papers 334, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    9. Rangan Gupta & Marius Jurgilas & Alain Kabundi & Stephen M. Miller, 2011. "Monetary policy and housing sector dynamics in a large-scale Bayesian vector autoregressive model," International Journal of Strategic Property Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(1), pages 1-20, August.
    10. Ghysels, E., 1992. "Charistmas, Spring and the Dawning of Economic Recovery," Cahiers de recherche 9215, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
    11. John C. Robertson & Ellis W. Tallman, 1999. "Prior parameter uncertainty: Some implications for forecasting and policy analysis with VAR models," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 99-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    12. Fabio Canova & Jane Marrinan, 1996. "Sources and propagation of international cycles: Common shocks or transmission?," Economics Working Papers 188, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
    13. Quinn, Stephen & Roberds, William, 2014. "How Amsterdam got fiat money," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 1-12.
    14. Kerry Odell & Marc D. Weidenmier, "undated". "Real Shock, Monetary Aftershock: The 1906 San Francisco Earthquake and the Panic of 1907," Claremont Colleges Working Papers 2001-07, Claremont Colleges.
    15. Kerry A. Odell & Marc D. Weidenmier, 2002. "Real Shock, Monetary Aftershock: The San Francisco Earthquake and the Panic of 1907," NBER Working Papers 9176, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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