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Business Cycles and Financial Crises: The Roles of Credit Supply and Demand Shocks

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  • James M. Nason
  • Ellis W. Tallman

Abstract

This paper explores the hypothesis that the sources of economic and financial crises differ from non-crisis business cycle fluctuations. We employ Markov-switching Bayesian vector autoregressions (MS-BVARs) to gather evidence about the hypothesis on a long annual U.S. sample running from 1890 to 2010. The sample covers several episodes useful for understanding U.S. economic and financial history, which generate variation in the data that aids in identifying credit supply and demand shocks. We identify these shocks within MS-BVARs by tying credit supply and demand movements to inside money and its intertemporal price. The model space is limited to stochastic volatility (SV) in the errors of the MS-BVARs. Of the 15 MS-BVARs estimated, the data favor a MS-BVAR in which economic and financial crises and non-crisis business cycle regimes recur throughout the long annual sample. The best-fitting MS-BVAR also isolates SV regimes in which shocks to inside money dominate aggregate fluctuations.

Suggested Citation

  • James M. Nason & Ellis W. Tallman, 2012. "Business Cycles and Financial Crises: The Roles of Credit Supply and Demand Shocks," CAMA Working Papers 2012-44, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  • Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2012-44
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    Cited by:

    1. Amir Ahmadi, Pooyan & Matthes, Christian & Wang, Mu-Chun, 2014. "Drifts, Volatilities and Impulse Responses Over the Last Century," Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100562, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    2. Breitung, Jörg & Eickmeier, Sandra, 2014. "Analyzing business and financial cycles using multi-level factor models," Discussion Papers 11/2014, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    3. Claudia M. Buch & Sandra Eickmeier & Esteban Prieto, 2014. "Macroeconomic Factors and Microlevel Bank Behavior," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(4), pages 715-751, June.
    4. Esteban Prieto & Sandra Eickmeier & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2016. "Time Variation in Macro‐Financial Linkages," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(7), pages 1215-1233, November.
    5. Breitung, Jörg & Eickmeier, Sandra, 2015. "Analyzing business cycle asymmetries in a multi-level factor model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 31-34.
    6. Simon Gilchrist & Egon Zakrajsek & Cristina Fuentes Albero & Dario Caldara, 2013. "On the Identification of Financial and Uncertainty Shocks," 2013 Meeting Papers 965, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    7. Jorge Mario Uribe & Inés María Ulloa & Johanna Perea, 2015. "Reference financial cycle in Colombia," Lecturas de Economía, Universidad de Antioquia, Departamento de Economía, issue 83, pages 33-62, Julio - D.
    8. Fernando Arias Rodríguez & Celina Gaitán Maldonado & Johanna López Velandia, 2014. "Las entidades financieras a lo largo del ciclo de negocios: ¿está el ciclo financiero sincronizado con el ciclo de negocios?," Revista Ensayos sobre Política Económica, Banco de la Republica de Colombia, vol. 32(75), pages 28-40, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inside money; Credit shock; Bayesian vector autoregression; Markov-switching; Stochastic volatility;

    JEL classification:

    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • N11 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - U.S.; Canada: Pre-1913
    • N12 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-

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