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Drifts, Volatilities, and Impulse Responses Over the Last Century

  • Amir-Ahmadi, Pooyan

    (Goethe University Frankfurt)

  • Matthes, Christian

    (Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond)

  • Wang, Mu-Chun

    (University of Hamburg)

How much have the dynamics of U.S. time series and in particular the transmission of innovations to monetary policy instruments changed over the last century? The answers to these questions that this paper gives are "a lot" and "probably less than you think," respectively. We use vector autoregressions with time-varying parameters and stochastic volatility to tackle these questions. In our analysis we use variables that both influenced monetary policy and in turn were influenced by monetary policy itself, including bond market data (the difference between long-term and short-term nominal interest rates) and the growth rate of money.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond in its series Working Paper with number 14-10.

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Length: 54 pages
Date of creation: 07 Apr 2014
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedrwp:14-10
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  1. Luca Benati & Thomas A Lubik, 2012. "Sales, Inventories, and Real Interest Rates: A Century of Stylized Facts," CAMA Working Papers 2012-19, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  2. Thomas J. Sargent & Paolo Surico, 2011. "Two Illustrations of the Quantity Theory of Money: Breakdowns and Revivals," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(1), pages 109-28, February.
  3. Uhlig, Harald, 2005. "What are the effects of monetary policy on output? Results from an agnostic identification procedure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 381-419, March.
  4. Christian Matthes & Argia M. Sbordone & Timothy Cogley, 2011. "Optimal Disinflation Under Learning," 2011 Meeting Papers 74, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  5. Pooyan Amir Ahmadi & Albrecht Ritschl, 2009. "Depression Econometrics: A FAVAR Model of Monetary Policy During the Great Depression," SFB 649 Discussion Papers SFB649DP2009-054, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
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  7. Francesco Bianchi, 2011. "Monetary/Fiscal Policy Mix and Agents' Beliefs," 2011 Meeting Papers 156, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  8. Giorgio E. Primiceri, 2005. "Time Varying Structural Vector Autoregressions and Monetary Policy," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 72(3), pages 821-852.
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  12. Timothy Cogley & Thomas J. Sargent, 2005. "Drift and Volatilities: Monetary Policies and Outcomes in the Post WWII U.S," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(2), pages 262-302, April.
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  15. Bianchi, Francesco & Ilut, Cosmin, 2013. "Monetary/Fiscal Policy Mix and Agents' Beliefs," CEPR Discussion Papers 9645, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  16. Antonello D'Agostino & Paolo Surico, 2012. "A Century of Inflation Forecasts," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(4), pages 1097-1106, November.
  17. Luca Gambetti & Jordi Galí, 2007. "On the sources of the Great Moderation," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Nov.
  18. Romer, Christina, 1986. "The Instability of the Prewar Economy Reconsidered: A Critical Examination of Historical Macroeconomic Data," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 46(02), pages 494-496, June.
  19. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 2006. "Were There Regime Switches in U.S. Monetary Policy?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(1), pages 54-81, March.
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  21. Kliem, Martin & Kriwoluzky, Alexander & Sarferaz, Samad, 2013. "On the low-frequency relationship between public deficits and inflation," Discussion Papers 12/2013, Deutsche Bundesbank, Research Centre.
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