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Drifts, Volatilities, and Impulse Responses Over the Last Century

Listed author(s):
  • Amir-Ahmadi, Pooyan

    (Goethe University Frankfurt)

  • Matthes, Christian

    (Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond)

  • Wang, Mu-Chun

    (University of Hamburg)

How much have the dynamics of U.S. time series and in particular the transmission of innovations to monetary policy instruments changed over the last century? The answers to these questions that this paper gives are "a lot" and "probably less than you think," respectively. We use vector autoregressions with time-varying parameters and stochastic volatility to tackle these questions. In our analysis we use variables that both influenced monetary policy and in turn were influenced by monetary policy itself, including bond market data (the difference between long-term and short-term nominal interest rates) and the growth rate of money.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond in its series Working Paper with number 14-10.

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Length: 54 pages
Date of creation: 07 Apr 2014
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedrwp:14-10
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.richmondfed.org/

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  1. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 2004. "Were there regime switches in U.S. monetary policy?," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2004-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  2. Koop, Gary & Korobilis, Dimitris, 2010. "Bayesian Multivariate Time Series Methods for Empirical Macroeconomics," Foundations and Trends(R) in Econometrics, now publishers, vol. 3(4), pages 267-358, July.
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  9. Canova, Fabio & Gambetti, Luca, 2009. "Structural changes in the US economy: Is there a role for monetary policy?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 477-490, February.
  10. Jon R. Moen & Ellis W. Tallman, 1994. "Clearinghouse access and bank runs: trust companies in New York and Chicago during the Panic of 1907," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 94-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  11. Christian Matthes & Argia M. Sbordone & Timothy Cogley, 2011. "Optimal Disinflation Under Learning," 2011 Meeting Papers 74, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  12. Pooyan Amir Ahmadi & Albrecht Ritschl, 2009. "Depression econometrics: a FAVAR model of monetary policy during the Great Depression," Economic History Working Papers 51582, London School of Economics and Political Science, Department of Economic History.
  13. Romer, Christina, 1986. "The Instability of the Prewar Economy Reconsidered: A Critical Examination of Historical Macroeconomic Data," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 46(02), pages 494-496, June.
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  17. Luca Benati & Thomas A. Lubik, 2012. "Sales, inventories, and real interest rates : a century of stylized facts," Working Paper 12-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
  18. Sangjoon Kim & Neil Shephard & Siddhartha Chib, 1998. "Stochastic Volatility: Likelihood Inference and Comparison with ARCH Models," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 65(3), pages 361-393.
  19. Martin Kliem & Alexander Kriwoluzky & Samad Sarferaz, 2016. "On the Low‐Frequency Relationship Between Public Deficits and Inflation," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(3), pages 566-583, 04.
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