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Drifts, Volatilities, and Impulse Responses Over the Last Century

  • Amir-Ahmadi, Pooyan

    (Goethe University Frankfurt)

  • Matthes, Christian

    (Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond)

  • Wang, Mu-Chun

    (University of Hamburg)

How much have the dynamics of U.S. time series and in particular the transmission of innovations to monetary policy instruments changed over the last century? The answers to these questions that this paper gives are "a lot" and "probably less than you think," respectively. We use vector autoregressions with time-varying parameters and stochastic volatility to tackle these questions. In our analysis we use variables that both influenced monetary policy and in turn were influenced by monetary policy itself, including bond market data (the difference between long-term and short-term nominal interest rates) and the growth rate of money.

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Paper provided by Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond in its series Working Paper with number 14-10.

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Length: 54 pages
Date of creation: 07 Apr 2014
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:fip:fedrwp:14-10
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  1. Uhlig, Harald, 1999. "What are the Effects of Monetary Policy on Output? Results from an Agnostic Identification Procedure," CEPR Discussion Papers 2137, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Jordi Gali & Luca Gambetti, 2008. "On the Sources of the Great Moderation," NBER Working Papers 14171, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  11. Christopher A. Sims & Tao Zha, 2005. "Were There Regime Switches in U.S. Monetary Policy?," Working Papers 92, Princeton University, Department of Economics, Center for Economic Policy Studies..
  12. Fabio Canova & Luca Gambetti, 2003. "Structural changes in the US economy: is there a role for monetary policy?," Economics Working Papers 918, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Apr 2008.
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  14. Luca Benati & Thomas A Lubik, 2012. "Sales, Inventories, and Real Interest Rates: A Century of Stylized Facts," CAMA Working Papers 2012-19, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  15. Kriwoluzky, Alexander & Kliem, Martin & Sarferaz, Samad, 2013. "On the low-frequency relationship between public deficits and inflation," Annual Conference 2013 (Duesseldorf): Competition Policy and Regulation in a Global Economic Order 80000, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  16. James M. Nason & Ellis W. Tallman, 2012. "Business Cycles and Financial Crises: The Roles of Credit Supply and Demand Shocks," CAMA Working Papers 2012-44, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  17. Thomas J. Sargent & Paolo Surico, 2011. "Two Illustrations of the Quantity Theory of Money: Breakdowns and Revivals," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(1), pages 109-28, February.
  18. Moen, Jon R. & Tallman, Ellis W., 2000. "Clearinghouse Membership and Deposit Contraction during the Panic of 1907," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 60(01), pages 145-163, March.
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