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Monetary/Fiscal Policy Mix and Agents' Beliefs

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  • Francesco Bianchi

    (Duke University)

Abstract

A micro-founded model that allows for changes in the monetary/fiscal policy mix and in the volatility of structural shocks is fit to US data. Agents are aware of the possibility of regime changes and their beliefs have an impact on the law of motion of the macroeconomy. The results show that the '60s and the '70s were characterized by a prolonged period of active scal policy and passive monetary policy. The appointment of Volcker marked a change in the conduct of monetary policy, but it took almost ten years for the fiscal authority to start accomodating this regime change. Counterfactual simulations show that if the active monetary/passive fiscal regime had been in place during the '70s, inflation would have been significantly lower. This result differs from previous ones obtained in the literature and suggests that modeling the fiscal/monetary policy interaction might be very important.

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  • Francesco Bianchi, 2011. "Monetary/Fiscal Policy Mix and Agents' Beliefs," 2011 Meeting Papers 156, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  • Handle: RePEc:red:sed011:156
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    Cited by:

    1. Amir Ahmadi, Pooyan & Matthes, Christian & Wang, Mu-Chun, 2014. "Drifts, Volatilities and Impulse Responses Over the Last Century," Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100562, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    2. Howard Kung & Gonzalo Morales & Francesco Bianchi, 2015. "Monetary/Fiscal Policy Mix and Asset Prices," 2015 Meeting Papers 1224, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    3. Jarociński, Marek & Maćkowiak, Bartosz, 2018. "Monetary-fiscal interactions and the euro area's malaise," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 251-266.
    4. Chernov, Mikhail & Schmid, Lukas & Schneider, Andres, 2016. "A Macrofinance View of U.S. Sovereign CDS Premiums," CEPR Discussion Papers 11576, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Yoosoon Chang & Boreum Kwak, 2017. "U.S. Monetary-Fiscal Regime Changes in the Presence of Endogenous Feedback in Policy Rules," Caepr Working Papers 2017-016 Classification- , Center for Applied Economics and Policy Research, Economics Department, Indiana University Bloomington.
    6. Howard Kung & Gonzalo Morales & Alexandre Corhay, 2017. "Fiscal Discount Rates and Debt Maturity," 2017 Meeting Papers 840, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    7. Lhuissier, Stéphane & Zabelina, Margarita, 2015. "On the stability of Calvo-style price-setting behavior," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 77-95.
    8. Hommes, Cars & Lustenhouwer, Joep & Mavromatis, Kostas, 2018. "Fiscal consolidations and heterogeneous expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 173-205.
    9. repec:eee:macchp:v2-2305 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Francesco Bianchi & Leonardo Melosi, 2014. "Dormant Shocks and Fiscal Virtue," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 28(1), pages 1-46.
    11. Chang, Yoosoon & Kwak, Boreum, 2017. "U.S. monetary-fiscal regime changes in the presence of endogenous feedback in policy rules," IWH Discussion Papers 15/2017, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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