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A fiscal theory of monetary policy with partially repaid long-term debt

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  • John Cochrane

    (Stanford University)

Abstract

I construct a simple model with sticky prices and interest rate targets, closed by fiscal theory of the price level with long-term debt and fiscal and monetary policy rules. Fiscal surpluses rise following deficits, to repay accumulated debt, but surpluses do not respond to all values of unexpected inflation and deflation. This specification avoids common puzzles and produces reasonable responses to fiscal and monetary policy shocks. It allows an easy translation of any new-Keynesian model, and it allows one to study a whole sample with active fiscal policy. (Copyright: Elsevier)

Suggested Citation

  • John Cochrane, 2022. "A fiscal theory of monetary policy with partially repaid long-term debt," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 45, pages 1-21, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:red:issued:20-44
    DOI: 10.1016/j.red.2021.06.001
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    19. John H. Cochrane, 2018. "Michelson-Morley, Fisher, and Occam: The Radical Implications of Stable Quiet Inflation at the Zero Bound," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 32(1), pages 113-226.
    20. Margaret M. Jacobson & Eric M. Leeper & Bruce Preston, 2019. "Recovery of 1933," NBER Working Papers 25629, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Eric M. Leeper & Nora Traum & Todd B. Walker, 2017. "Clearing Up the Fiscal Multiplier Morass," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(8), pages 2409-2454, August.
    22. Ramey, V.A., 2016. "Macroeconomic Shocks and Their Propagation," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 71-162, Elsevier.
    23. Willem H. Buiter, 2002. "The Fiscal Theory Of The Price Level: A Critique," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(481), pages 459-480, July.
    24. Sims, Christopher A., 2011. "Stepping on a rake: The role of fiscal policy in the inflation of the 1970s," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 48-56, January.
    25. Leeper, E.M. & Leith, C., 2016. "Understanding Inflation as a Joint Monetary–Fiscal Phenomenon," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 2305-2415, Elsevier.
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    Cited by:

    1. Zhengyang Jiang & Hanno Lustig & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh & Mindy Z. Xiaolan, 2020. "Manufacturing Risk-free Government Debt," NBER Working Papers 27786, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. John Cochrane, 2022. "The fiscal root of inflation," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 45, pages 22-40, July.
    3. John H. Cochrane, 2020. "Strategic Review and Beyond: Rethinking Monetary Policy and Independence," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 102(2), pages 99-119, May.
    4. Alexandre Corhay & Thilo Kind & Howard Kung & Gonzalo Morales, 2021. "Discount Rates, Debt Maturity, and the Fiscal Theory," Staff Working Papers 21-58, Bank of Canada.
    5. Marco Bassetto & Gherardo Gennaro Caracciolo, 2021. "Monetary/Fiscal Interactions with Forty Budget Constraints," Working Papers 788, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    6. Reichlin, Lucrezia & Ricco, Giovanni & Tarbé, Matthieu, 2023. "Monetary–fiscal crosswinds in the European Monetary Union," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    7. Bonam, Dennis & Ciccarelli, Matteo & Gomes, Sandra & Aldama, Pierre & Bańkowski, Krzysztof & Buss, Ginters & da Costa, José Cardoso & Christoffel, Kai & Elfsbacka Schmöller, Michaela & Jacquinot, Pasc, 2024. "Challenges for monetary and fiscal policy interactions in the post-pandemic era," Occasional Paper Series 337, European Central Bank.
    8. Kaan Masatci & Asuman Oktayer, 2022. "The Power of Linear Methods in Determining the Dominant Fiscal Regime: A Research on Turkiye," Journal of Economy Culture and Society, Istanbul University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 65(65), pages 375-394, June.
    9. Jing Cynthia Wu & Yinxi Xie, 2022. "(Un)Conventional Monetary and Fiscal Policy," NBER Working Papers 30706, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Marieh Azizirad, 2022. "Fisher vs Keynes: Does an Interest Rate Hike Cause Inflation to Increase or Decrease?," Discussion Papers dp22-08, Department of Economics, Simon Fraser University.
    11. Mao, Ruoyun & Shen, Wenyi & Yang, Shu-Chun S., 2024. "Can passive monetary policy decrease the debt burden?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 159(C).
    12. Nikiforov Petro & Greshko Roman & Marych Maksym & Marusiak Nataliia & Kharabara Violetta & Gladchuk Olga, 2022. "Mutual Influence of Fiscal and Monetary Policy in the Context of Ensuring Macro-Financial Stability of the State," Management Theory and Studies for Rural Business and Infrastructure Development, Sciendo, vol. 44(4), pages 435-442, December.
    13. Max Ole Liemen & Olaf Posch, 2022. "FTPL and the Maturity Structure of Government Debt in the New Keynesian Model," CESifo Working Paper Series 9840, CESifo.
    14. Staffa, Ruben Marek & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2023. "Fiscal policy under the eyes of wary bondholders," IWH Discussion Papers 26/2023, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    15. Pejman Peykani & Mostafa Sargolzaei & Amir Takaloo & Shahla Valizadeh, 2023. "The Effects of Monetary Policy on Macroeconomic Variables through Credit and Balance Sheet Channels: A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(5), pages 1-21, March.
    16. Corhay, Alexandre & Kind, Thilo & Kung, Howard & Morales, Gonzalo, 2021. "Discount rates, debt maturity, and the fiscal theory," SAFE Working Paper Series 323, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal theory of the price level; Monetary policy; Fiscal policy; Inflation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy

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