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Reflections on fiscalist divergent price-paths

  • Óscar J. Arce

    ()

    (Banco de España)

In this paper I analyze the classes of price-paths arising from a non-Ricardian fiscal monetary plan along the lines of the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level (FTPL), under a price invariant nominal money supply rule in a standard Sidrauski-Brock model. I first show that fiscalist speculative deflationary paths are irrational bubbles. Then I argue that a fully autonomous fiscal policy is, in most cases, no implementable, regardless of the time horizon, thus complementing Buiter's (2001, 2002) findings. Finally, I claim that, contrary to the FTPL's arguments, a speculative hyperinflation can never be a necessary result. This latter observation is taken as an evidence against the analogy drawn between the equilibrium value of a firm's stock and money, as recently suggested by some proponents of this new paradigm in monetary economics.

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File URL: http://www.bde.es/f/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicaciones/PublicacionesSeriadas/DocumentosTrabajo/05/Fic/dt0533e.pdf
File Function: First version, October 2005
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Paper provided by Banco de Espa�a in its series Banco de Espa�a Working Papers with number 0533.

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Length: 40 pages
Date of creation: Oct 2005
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:0533
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  1. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 1981. "Speculative hyperinflations in a maximizing models: can we rule them out?," International Finance Discussion Papers 195, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  2. Dirk Niepelt, 2004. "The Fiscal Myth of the Price Level," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 119(1), pages 276-299, February.
  3. Troy Davig & Eric M. Leeper & Hess Chung, 2004. "Monetary and Fiscal Policy Switching," NBER Working Papers 10362, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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  8. Willem Buiter & Anne Sibert, 2004. "Deflationary Bubbles," Birkbeck Working Papers in Economics and Finance 0409, Birkbeck, Department of Economics, Mathematics & Statistics.
  9. Dupor, Bill, 2000. "Exchange rates and the fiscal theory of the price level," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 613-630, June.
  10. Cushing, Matthew J., 1999. "The indeterminacy of prices under interest rate pegging: The non-Ricardian case," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 131-148, August.
  11. Luca Sala, 2004. "The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level: Identifying Restrictions and Empirical Evidence," Working Papers 257, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  12. Cochrane, John H., 2005. "Money as stock," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(3), pages 501-528, April.
  13. Marco Bassetto, 2000. "A Game-Theoretic View of the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 1492, Econometric Society.
  14. Michael Woodford, 2001. "Fiscal Requirements for Price Stability," NBER Working Papers 8072, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Bennett T. McCallum, . "Is The Fiscal Theory of the Price Level Learnable?," GSIA Working Papers 2003-24, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
  16. Bennett T. McCallum, 1998. "Indeterminacy, Bubbles, and the Fiscal Theory of Price Level Determination," NBER Working Papers 6456, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Woodford, Michael, 1995. "Price-level determinacy without control of a monetary aggregate," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 1-46, December.
  18. Sims, Christopher A, 1994. "A Simple Model for Study of the Determination of the Price Level and the Interaction of Monetary and Fiscal Policy," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 381-99.
  19. Bennett T. McCallum, . "Role of the minimal state variable criterion in rational expectations models," GSIA Working Papers 1999-13, Carnegie Mellon University, Tepper School of Business.
  20. Philippe Weil, 2002. "Reflections on the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/8643, Sciences Po.
  21. John H. Cochrane, 1998. "A Frictionless View of U.S. Inflation," CRSP working papers 479, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
  22. John H. Cochrane, 1998. "Long-term Debt and Optimal Policy in the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level," CRSP working papers 478, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
  23. Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 2000. "Understanding the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level," NBER Working Papers 7668, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  24. Buiter, Willem H., 1999. "The Fallacy of the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level," CEPR Discussion Papers 2205, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  25. Eric M. Leeper & Tack Yun, 2005. "Monetary-Fiscal Policy Interactions and the Price Level: Background and Beyond," NBER Working Papers 11646, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  26. Leeper, Eric M., 1991. "Equilibria under 'active' and 'passive' monetary and fiscal policies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 129-147, February.
  27. Woodford, Michael, 1994. "Monetary Policy and Price Level Determinacy in a Cash-in-Advance Economy," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 345-80.
  28. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-45, November.
  29. Willem H. Buiter, 2001. "The fallacy of the fiscal theory of the price level, again," Bank of England working papers 141, Bank of England.
  30. Canzoneri, Matthew B & Cumby, Robert & Diba, Behzad, 1998. "Is the Price Level Determined by the Needs of Fiscal Solvency?," CEPR Discussion Papers 1772, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  31. Sargent, Thomas J & Wallace, Neil, 1975. ""Rational" Expectations, the Optimal Monetary Instrument, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(2), pages 241-54, April.
  32. Narayana Kocherlakota & Christopher Phelan, 1999. "Explaining the fiscal theory of the price level," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall, pages 14-23.
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  34. Thomas J. Sargent & Neil Wallace, 1981. "Some unpleasant monetarist arithmetic," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall.
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