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Deficit sustainability and inflation in EMU: An analysis from the fiscal theory of the price level

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  • Oscar Bajo-Rubio

    (Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha and Instituto de Estudios Fiscales)

  • Carmen Díaz-Roldán

    (Universidad de Castilla-La Mancha)

  • Vicente Esteve

    (Universidad de Valencia)

Abstract

Price determination theory typically focuses on monetary plicy, while the role of fiscal policy is ussually neglected. From a different point of view, the Fiscal Theory of Price Level takes into account monetary and fiscal policy interactions and assumes that fiscal policy may determine the price level, even if monetary authorities pursue an inflation targeting strategy. In this paper we try to test empirically whether the time path of the government budget in EMU countries would have affected price level determination. Our results point to the sustainability of fiscal policy in all the EMU countries but Finland, although no firm conclusions can be drawn about the prevalence of either monetary or fiscal dominance.

Suggested Citation

  • Oscar Bajo-Rubio & Carmen Díaz-Roldán & Vicente Esteve, 2007. "Deficit sustainability and inflation in EMU: An analysis from the fiscal theory of the price level," Working Papers 07-01, Asociación Española de Economía y Finanzas Internacionales.
  • Handle: RePEc:aee:wpaper:0701
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    Cited by:

    1. Oscar Bajo-Rubio & Carmen Diaz-Roldan & Vicente Esteve, 2008. "US deficit sustainability revisited: a multiple structural change approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(12), pages 1609-1613.
    2. Tomasz Łyziak & Joanna Mackiewicz-Łyziak, 2019. "Sustainability of Public Finances in European Economies: Fiscal Policy Reactions and Market Pricing," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(1), pages 3-19, January.
    3. Hassan Ayoub & Jérôme Creel & Étienne Farvaque, 2008. "Détermination du niveau des prix et finances publiques : le cas du Liban, 1965 – 2005," Revue d’économie du développement, De Boeck Université, vol. 16(3), pages 115-141.
    4. António Afonso & João Tovar Jalles, 2012. "Revisiting fiscal sustainability: panel cointegration and structural breaks in OECD countries," Working Papers Department of Economics 2012/29, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, Department of Economics, Universidade de Lisboa.
    5. Fan, Jingwen & Minford, Patrick, 2009. "Can the Fiscal Theory of the price level explain UK inflation in the 1970s?," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2009/26, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section, revised Mar 2011.
    6. Evan Lau & Ahmad Zubaidi Baharumshah & Soon, 2013. "The behavior of external debt in Asian countries: evidence based on panel unit root tests," Journal of Business Economics and Management, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(sup1), pages 377-394, June.
    7. António AFONSO & Priscilla TOFFANO, 2013. "Fiscal regimes in the EU," Working Papers of Department of Economics, Leuven ces13.06, KU Leuven, Faculty of Economics and Business (FEB), Department of Economics, Leuven.
    8. A. Ahmad & Su-ling Fanelli, 2014. "Fiscal Sustainability in the Euro-Zone: Is There A Role for Euro-Bonds?," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 42(3), pages 291-303, September.
    9. Bazzaoui, Lamia & Nagayasu, Jun, 2019. "Is Inflation Fiscally Determined?," MPRA Paper 95753, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Moses K. Tule & Usman Nuruddeen & Oloruntoba S. Ogundele & Apinran O. Martins, 2019. "A Test of the Fiscal Theory of Price Level: Case Study of Nigeria," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 9(6), pages 67-76.
    11. Süleyman Bolat & Aviral Kumar Tiwari & Mihai Mutascu, 2014. "The behaviour of US and UK public debt: further evidence based on time varying parameters," Working Papers halshs-01107962, HAL.
    12. Di Bartolomeo, Giovanni & Giuli, Francesco, 2011. "Fiscal and monetary interaction under monetary policy uncertainty," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 369-375, June.
    13. Hossein-Ali Fakher, 2016. "The Empirical Relationship between Fiscal Deficits and Inflation (Case Study: Selected Asian Economies)," Iranian Economic Review (IER), Faculty of Economics,University of Tehran.Tehran,Iran, vol. 20(4), pages 551-579, Autumn.
    14. Fan, Jingwen & Minford, Patrick & Ou, Zhirong, 2016. "The role of fiscal policy in Britain's Great Inflation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 203-218.
    15. Bajo-Rubio, Oscar & Díaz-Roldán, Carmen & Esteve, Vicente, 2014. "Deficit sustainability, and monetary versus fiscal dominance: The case of Spain, 1850–2000," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 924-937.
    16. Gabriele Galati & John Lewis & Steven Poelhekke & Chen Zhou, 2011. "Have market views on the sustainability of fiscal burdens influenced monetary authorities' credibility?," DNB Working Papers 304, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    17. Hyejin Ko, 2020. "Measuring fiscal sustainability in the welfare state: fiscal space as fiscal sustainability," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 531-554, May.
    18. Libich, Jan & Nguyen, Dat Thanh & Stehlík, Petr, 2015. "Monetary exit and fiscal spillovers," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 40(PA), pages 184-206.
    19. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/6154 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. María del Carmen Ramos-Herrera & María A. Prats, 2020. "Fiscal Sustainability in the European Countries: A Panel ARDL Approach and a Dynamic Panel Threshold Model," Sustainability, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 12(20), pages 1-14, October.
    21. Jalil, Abdul & Tariq, Rabbia & Bibi, Nazia, 2014. "Fiscal deficit and inflation: New evidences from Pakistan using a bounds testing approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 120-126.
    22. Oscar Bajo Rubio & Carmen Díaz Roldán & Vicente Esteve, 2010. "On the sustainability of government deficits: Some long-term evidence for Spain, 1850-2000," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 13, pages 263-281, November.
    23. Roseline Nyakerario Misati & Esman Morekwa Nyamongo & Lucas Kamau Njoroge & Sheila Kaminchia, 2012. "Feasibility of inflation targeting in an emerging market: evidence from Kenya," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 4(2), pages 146-159, May.
    24. Mackiewicz-Łyziak, Joanna & Łyziak, Tomasz, 2019. "A new test for fiscal sustainability with endogenous sovereign bond yields: Evidence for EU economies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 136-151.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal Theory of the Price Level; monetary and fiscal dominance; central bank independence; fiscal solvency; inflation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • O52 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Europe

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