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Using Structural Balance Data to Test the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level: Some International Evidence

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  • Jérôme Creel

    () (OFCE - OFCE - Sciences Po)

  • Hervé Le Bihan

    (Centre de recherche de la Banque de France - Banque de France)

Abstract

The fiscal theory of the price level has recently received important attention as an alternative theory of price determination. Empirical tests of the FTPL have been rare, and have undergone forceful criticism by Cochrane [Cochrane, J., 1998. A frictionless view of US inflation. NBER Macroeconomics Annual. MIT Press, pp. 323-384] based on "observational equivalence" arguments. This paper proposes two extensions to the empirics of the FTPL. First, we apply the methodology initiated by Canzoneri et al. [Canzoneri, M.B., Cumby, R.E., Diba, B.T., 2001. Is the price level determined by the needs of fiscal solvency? American Economic Review 91, 1221-1238] to European data. Second, we use structural balance data, in order to overcome Cochrane's critique. Our conclusion is that for neither country the data support a FTPL interpretation.

Suggested Citation

  • Jérôme Creel & Hervé Le Bihan, 2006. "Using Structural Balance Data to Test the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level: Some International Evidence," Post-Print hal-01065036, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01065036
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal-sciencespo.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01065036
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    16. Leeper, Eric M., 1991. "Equilibria under 'active' and 'passive' monetary and fiscal policies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 129-147, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jérôme Creel & Francesco Saraceno & Paola Veroni, 2005. "Discretionary Policy Interactions and the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level: A SVAR Analysis on French Data," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/2525, Sciences Po.
    2. Bajo-Rubio, Oscar & Díaz-Roldán, Carmen & Esteve, Vicente, 2009. "Deficit sustainability and inflation in EMU: An analysis from the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 525-539, December.
    3. Djelassi, Mouldi & Essid, Lobna, 2012. "Le niveau des prix en Tunisie est-il déterminé par la politique budgétaire?," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 88(2), pages 231-256, Juin.
    4. Jérôme Creel & Paola Monperrus-Veroni & Francesco Saraceno, 2007. "Politique budgétaire discrétionnaire en France. Les effets à court et à long terme," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 58(5), pages 1035-1053.
    5. Fan, Jingwen & Minford, Patrick, 2009. "Can the Fiscal Theory of the price level explain UK inflation in the 1970s?," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2009/26, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section, revised Mar 2011.
    6. Antipa, P., 2015. "How fiscal policy affects the price level: lessons from a not so distant past," Rue de la Banque, Banque de France, issue 13, November..
    7. Aldama Pierre & Jérôme Creel, 2016. "Why fiscal regimes matter for fiscal sustainability analysis : an application to France," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2016-15, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    8. Hassan Ayoub & Jérôme Creel & Étienne Farvaque, 2008. "Détermination du niveau des prix et finances publiques : le cas du Liban, 1965 – 2005," Revue d’économie du développement, De Boeck Université, vol. 16(3), pages 115-141.
    9. Nikki Panjer & Leo de Haan & Jan Jacobs, 2017. "Is fiscal policy in the euro area Ricardian?," DNB Working Papers 562, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    10. Jérôme Creel & Francesco Saraceno, 2008. "Wealth Effects and Public Debt in an Endogenous Growth Model. Banca d'Italia Public Finance Workshop 'Fiscal Sustainability : Analytical Developments and Emerging Policy Issues', Perugia, 3-5 April 20," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/9644, Sciences Po.
    11. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/6154 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. repec:bfr:rueban:13 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/9644 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Jérôme Creel & Günes Kamber, 2004. "Debt, deficits and inflation on the road to the EU: the case of Turkey," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 91(5), pages 157-174.

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