IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/aea/aecrev/v76y1986i4p808-19.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

On the Limitations of Government Borrowing: A Framework for EmpiricalTesting

Author

Listed:
  • Hamilton, James D
  • Flavin, Marjorie A

Abstract

This paper seeks to distinguish empirically between two views on the limitations of government borrowing. According to one view, nothing precludes the government from running a permanent budget deficit, paying interest due on the growing debt load simply by issuing new debt, An alternative perspective holds that creditors would be unwilling to purchase government debt unless the government made a credible commitment to balance its budget in present value terms. We show that distinguishing between these possibilities is mathematically equivalent to testing whether a continuing currency inflation might be fueled by speculation alone or is instead driven solely by economic fundamentals. Empirical tests which have been developed for this economic question lead us to conclude that postwar U.S. deficits are largely consistent with the proposition that the government budget must be balanced in present-value terms.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Hamilton, James D & Flavin, Marjorie A, 1986. "On the Limitations of Government Borrowing: A Framework for EmpiricalTesting," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(4), pages 808-819, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:76:y:1986:i:4:p:808-19
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0002-8282%28198609%2976%3A4%3C808%3AOTLOGB%3E2.0.CO%3B2-Y&origin=repec
    File Function: full text
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to JSTOR subscribers. See http://www.jstor.org for details.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Aschauer, David Alan, 1985. "Fiscal Policy and Aggregate Demand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 75(1), pages 117-127, March.
    2. Burbidge, John B, 1983. "Government Debt in an Overlapping-Generations Model with Bequests and Gifts," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 73(1), pages 222-227, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. B. Douglas Bernheim, 1987. "Ricardian Equivalence: An Evaluation of Theory and Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1987, Volume 2, pages 263-316, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Becker, Torbjörn, 1995. "Government Debt and Private Consumption: Theory and Evidence," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 71, Stockholm School of Economics.
    3. James B. Davies & Jinli Zeng & Jie Zhang, 2009. "Time‐consistent taxation in a dynastic family model with human and physical capital and a balanced government budget," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 42(3), pages 1023-1049, August.
    4. Hrushikesh Mallick, 2008. "Do remittances impact the economy? Some empirical evidences from a developing economy," Centre for Development Studies, Trivendrum Working Papers 407, Centre for Development Studies, Trivendrum, India.
    5. Sanghamitra Bandyopadhyay & Joan Esteban, 2009. "Redistributive Taxation, Public Expenditure, and Size of Governent," UFAE and IAE Working Papers 799.09, Unitat de Fonaments de l'Anàlisi Econòmica (UAB) and Institut d'Anàlisi Econòmica (CSIC).
    6. Lorenzo Pozzi, 2003. "Tax Discounting in a High‐debt Economy," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(3), pages 261-282, July.
    7. Alan C. Stockman, 1988. "Fiscal Policies and International Financial Markets," NBER Chapters, in: International Aspects of Fiscal Policies, pages 197-228, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Ni, Shawn, 1995. "An empirical analysis on the substitutability between private consumption and government purchases," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 593-605, December.
    9. Jyh-Lin Wu, 1994. "Fiscal announcements and real exchange rate dynamics," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 5(2), pages 177-190, March.
    10. Leiderman, Leonardo & Razin, Assaf, 1991. "Determinants of external imbalances: The role of taxes, government spending, and productivity," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 5(4), pages 421-450, December.
    11. Üngör, Murat, 2014. "Some thought experiments on the changes in labor supply in Turkey," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 265-272.
    12. Zhang, J., 1998. "Global behaviour of a system with imperfect private-public substitutability," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(3), pages 437-454, March.
    13. Elmendorf, Douglas W. & Gregory Mankiw, N., 1999. "Government debt," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 25, pages 1615-1669, Elsevier.
    14. L. Marattin & S. Salotti, 2009. "The Response of Private Consumption to Different Public Spending Categories: VAR Evidence from UK," Working Papers 670, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    15. Laura Mayoral & Joan Esteban, 2019. "A politico-economic model of public expenditure and income taxation," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 10(3), pages 479-507, November.
    16. Kea BARET, 2021. "Fiscal rules’ compliance and Social Welfare," Working Papers of BETA 2021-38, Bureau d'Economie Théorique et Appliquée, UDS, Strasbourg.
    17. Carlos Vieira, 2004. "The Deficit?Interest Rate Connection: an empirical assessment of the EU," Economics Working Papers 5_2004, University of Évora, Department of Economics (Portugal).
    18. Hafedh Bouakez & Nooman Rebei, 2007. "Why does private consumption rise after a government spending shock?," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 40(3), pages 954-979, August.
    19. Tsung‐Wu Ho, 2004. "Cointegration, Government Spending and Private Consumption: Evidence from Japan," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 55(2), pages 162-174, June.
    20. Marrinan, Jane, 1998. "Government consumption and private consumption correlations," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 615-636, August.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:76:y:1986:i:4:p:808-19. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aeaaaea.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Michael P. Albert (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aeaaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.