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Le niveau des prix en Tunisie est-il déterminé par la politique budgétaire?

Author

Listed:
  • Djelassi, Mouldi

    (École Supérieure des Sciences Économiques et Commerciales de Tunis)

  • Essid, Lobna

    (Unité de recherche en Économie Monétaire et Financière, Faculté des Sciences économique et de Gestion de Tunis)

Abstract

Tunisian economy has experienced a stable and low inflation after reforms of PAS. The objective of this paper is to find contacts between practices of monetary and fiscal policy and the economic literature. We use a vector auto regression (VAR) analysis in order to take into account the bidirectional effect between liability and surplus. The Granger causality test shows the direction of causality. FTPL (Fiscal Theory of the Price Level) can apply to Tunisian economy where surplus series is exogenous. We attribute the low and stable inflation in Tunisia to a dominant fiscal policy and to a monetary policy which targets interest rate. Résumé – L’économie tunisienne a connu une inflation faible et stable sans précédent suite aux réformes du programme d’ajustement structurel (PAS). L’objectif de cet article consiste à trouver des contacts entre les pratiques des politiques monétaire et budgétaire tunisiennes avec la littérature économique. Afin de prendre en compte les effets réciproques entre le passif et l’actif du budget de l’État, nous adoptons une démarche en terme du modèle VAR ainsi que des tests de causalités de Granger. La théorie budgétaire du niveau des prix s’applique au cas de l’économie tunisienne où le surplus est exogène. Nous attribuons le niveau faible et stable de l’inflation à une politique budgétaire dominante et une politique monétaire qui cible le taux d’intérêt.

Suggested Citation

  • Djelassi, Mouldi & Essid, Lobna, 2012. "Le niveau des prix en Tunisie est-il déterminé par la politique budgétaire?," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 88(2), pages 231-256, Juin.
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:actuec:0071
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