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Comparative Macroeconomic Dynamics in the Arab World: A Panel Var Approach

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  • Mr. Alexei P Kireyev

Abstract

The paper presents a comparative analysis of macroeconomic dynamics of 18 Arab countries based on a panel vector autogression estimation. Comparing growth performance, fiscal and current account developments in these countries, the study concludes that (1) in the short run, external and country-specific factors play an almost equal role in explaining macroeconomic fluctuations, but in the long run external factors dominate; (2) on average, program countries are less vulnerable to adverse exogeneous shocks than nonprogram countries; (3) to mitigate the negative impact of an external shock, domestic policy response should be consistent with the size of the shock.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Alexei P Kireyev, 2000. "Comparative Macroeconomic Dynamics in the Arab World: A Panel Var Approach," IMF Working Papers 2000/054, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2000/054
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    1. Yasir Alsaedi & Gurudeo Anand Tularam & Victor Wong, 2020. "Assessing the Effects of Solar and Wind Prices on the Australia Electricity Spot and Options Markets Using a Vector Autoregression Analysis," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(1), pages 120-133.
    2. Abidin Öncel & Ali Kabasakal & Aziz Kutlar & Samet Acar, 2024. "Energy consumption, economic growth and Ecological footprint relationship in the top Russian energy importers: a panel data analysis," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 26(8), pages 21019-21052, August.
    3. Mirela Sorina Miescu, 2016. "IMF Programs and Sensitivity to External Shocks: An Empirical Application," Working Papers 791, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
    4. Charfeddine, Lanouar & Kahia, Montassar, 2019. "Impact of renewable energy consumption and financial development on CO2 emissions and economic growth in the MENA region: A panel vector autoregressive (PVAR) analysis," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 198-213.
    5. Vincent Bouvatier & Antonia Lopez-Villavicencio & Valérie Mignon, 2010. "On the Link Between Credit Procyclicality and Bank Competition," Working Papers 2010-25, CEPII research center.
    6. Nurcan Kilinc-Ata, 2018. "Assessing the Future of Renewable Energy Consumption for United Kingdom, Turkey and Nigeria," Foresight and STI Governance (Foresight-Russia till No. 3/2015), National Research University Higher School of Economics, vol. 12(4), pages 62-77.
    7. Trofimov, Ivan D., 2020. "Public capital and productive economy profits: evidence from OECD economies," MPRA Paper 106848, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Ahortor, Christian R.K. & Adenutsi, Deodat E., 2009. "Inflation, capital accumulation and economic growth in import-dependent developing countries," MPRA Paper 29353, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2010.
    9. Joseph Ayoola Omojolaibi, 2013. "Does Volatility in Crude Oil Price Precipitate Macroeconomic Performance in Nigeria?," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 3(2), pages 143-152.
    10. Ma, Yu & Zhang, Yang & Ji, Qiang, 2021. "Do oil shocks affect Chinese bank risk?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    11. Abdelbary, Islam & Benhin, James, 2019. "Governance, capital and economic growth in the Arab Region," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 184-191.
    12. International Monetary Fund, 2008. "Fiscal and Monetary Anchors for Price Stability: Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa," IMF Working Papers 2008/121, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Rafei, Meysam & Esmaeili, Parisa & Balsalobre-Lorente, Daniel, 2022. "A step towards environmental mitigation: How do economic complexity and natural resources matter? Focusing on different institutional quality level countries," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    14. Chen Haibo & Emmanuel Kwaku Manu & Mary Somuah, 2023. "Examining Finance-Growth Nexus: Empirical Evidence From the Sub-Regional Economies of Africa," SAGE Open, , vol. 13(1), pages 21582440231, February.
    15. Seedwell Hove & Albert Touna Mama & Fulbert Tchana Tchana, 2016. "Terms of Trade Shocks and Inflation Targeting in Emerging Market Economies," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 84(1), pages 81-108, March.
    16. Kumeka, Terver Theophilus & Uzoma-Nwosu, Damian Chidozie & David-Wayas, Maria Onyinye, 2022. "The effects of COVID-19 on the interrelationship among oil prices, stock prices and exchange rates in selected oil exporting economies," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    17. Djelassi, Mouldi & Essid, Lobna, 2012. "Le niveau des prix en Tunisie est-il déterminé par la politique budgétaire?," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 88(2), pages 231-256, Juin.
    18. Yasir Alsaedi & Gurudeo Anand Tularam & Victor Wong, 2020. "Impact of Solar and Wind Prices on the Integrated Global Electricity Spot and Options Markets: A Time Series Analysis," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 10(2), pages 337-353.
    19. Mohammed Nur HUSSAIN & Nam HOANG, 2014. "Effects of Fiscal, Monetary, and Exchange rate policies on Output in 12 Asian Economies, 1974-2007," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 14(2).

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