IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/29353.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Inflation, capital accumulation and economic growth in import-dependent developing countries

Author

Listed:
  • Ahortor, Christian R.K.
  • Adenutsi, Deodat E.

Abstract

The analytical framework of this paper makes use of a hexa-variate panel vector autoregressive (PVAR) approach on balanced annual panel data from 30 sampled import-dependent developing economies for the period, 1970-2006. The variables included in the empirical PVAR model are inflation, capital accumulation, output growth rate, interest rate, exchange rate, terms of trade and import dependence. Our empirical results suggest that the long-run static impact of capital accumulation and economic growth on inflation is negative. Besides, inflation and economic growth had dampening effects on capital accumulation contemporaneously in the long run. The short-run dynamics also indicate that while it is possible for any previous disequilibrium in inflation, capital accumulation and economic growth relationship to be corrected overtime, the speed of adjustment to equilibrium is so sluggish that it will take a very long time for this to manifest. Exchange rate and money supply produce short-run dynamics that drive price levels in import-dependent developing economies. It is, therefore, recommended that in order to reduce inflation in import-dependent economies, demand management policies should be used in the short run, while macroeconomic policies should be directed at enhancing economic growth and capital accumulation in the long run.

Suggested Citation

  • Ahortor, Christian R.K. & Adenutsi, Deodat E., 2009. "Inflation, capital accumulation and economic growth in import-dependent developing countries," MPRA Paper 29353, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 2010.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:29353
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/29353/1/MPRA_paper_29353.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Romer, Paul M, 1986. "Increasing Returns and Long-run Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 94(5), pages 1002-1037, October.
    2. Robert S. Pindyck & Andrés Solimano, 1993. "Economic Instability and Aggregate Investment," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1993, Volume 8, pages 259-318, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Robert M. Solow, 1956. "A Contribution to the Theory of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 70(1), pages 65-94.
    4. Burdekin, Richard C.K. & Denzau, Arthur T. & Keil, Manfred W. & Sitthiyot, Thitithep & Willett, Thomas D., 2004. "When does inflation hurt economic growth? Different nonlinearities for different economies," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 519-532, September.
    5. Robert J. Barro, 1991. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 106(2), pages 407-443.
    6. Peter Pedroni, 2000. "Fully Modified OLS for Heterogeneous Cointegrated Panels," Department of Economics Working Papers 2000-03, Department of Economics, Williams College.
    7. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    8. Peter Pedroni, 1999. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(S1), pages 653-670, November.
    9. Martin Feldstein, 1983. "Inflation, Tax Rules, and Investment: Some Econometric Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: Inflation, Tax Rules, and Capital Formation, pages 243-286, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Suzanne McCoskey & Chihwa Kao, 1998. "A residual-based test of the null of cointegration in panel data," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 57-84.
    11. Hansen, Bruce E., 1999. "Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels: Estimation, testing, and inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 345-368, December.
    12. K. J. Arrow, 1971. "The Economic Implications of Learning by Doing," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: F. H. Hahn (ed.), Readings in the Theory of Growth, chapter 11, pages 131-149, Palgrave Macmillan.
    13. Thorvaldur Gylfason, 1991. "Inflation, Growth, and External Debt: A View of the Landscape," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(3), pages 279-297, September.
    14. Rapach, David E, 2003. "International Evidence on the Long-Run Impact of Inflation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 35(1), pages 23-48, February.
    15. Fischer, Stanley, 1993. "The role of macroeconomic factors in growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 485-512, December.
    16. Mr. Alexei P Kireyev, 2000. "Comparative Macroeconomic Dynamics in the Arab World: A Panel Var Approach," IMF Working Papers 2000/054, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Stanners, W, 1993. "Is Low Inflation an Important Condition for High Growth?," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 17(1), pages 79-107, March.
    18. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    19. Eliana A. Cardoso & Albert Fishlow, 1989. "Latin American Economic Development: 1950-1980," NBER Working Papers 3161, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Pedroni, Peter, 1999. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(0), pages 653-670, Special I.
    21. Byrne, Joseph P. & Davis, E. Philip, 2004. "Permanent and temporary inflation uncertainty and investment in the United States," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 85(2), pages 271-277, November.
    22. João R. Faria & Francisco Galrão Carneiro, 2001. "Does High Inflation Affect Growth in the Long and Short Run?," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 4, pages 89-105, May.
    23. Sweidan, O.D., 2004. "Does Inflation Harm Economic Growth in Jordan?. An Econometric Analysis for the Period 1970-2000," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 1(2), pages 41-66.
    24. Stanley Fischer, 1983. "Inflation and Growth," NBER Working Papers 1235, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    25. Love, Inessa & Zicchino, Lea, 2006. "Financial development and dynamic investment behavior: Evidence from panel VAR," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 190-210, May.
    26. Rolf Larsson & Johan Lyhagen & Mickael Lothgren, 2001. "Likelihood-based cointegration tests in heterogeneous panels," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 4(1), pages 1-41.
    27. Grimes, Arthur, 1991. "The effects of inflation on growth: some international evidence," MPRA Paper 68526, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    28. Romer, Paul M, 1987. "Growth Based on Increasing Returns Due to Specialization," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(2), pages 56-62, May.
    29. Robert M. Solow, 1986. "What Is a Nice Girl Like You Doing in a Place Like This? Macroeconomics after Fifty Years," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 12(3), pages 191-198, Jul-Sep.
    30. Jakob B. Madsen, 2003. "Inflation and Investment," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 50(4), pages 375-397, September.
    31. Chirinko, Robert S., 1996. "Investment under uncertainty: A review essay," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 20(9-10), pages 1801-1808.
    32. Rapach, David E & Wohar, Mark E, 2005. "Regime Changes in International Real Interest Rates: Are They a Monetary Phenomenon?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(5), pages 887-906, October.
    33. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hasanov, Fakhri & Bulut, Cihan & Suleymanov, Elchin, 2017. "Review of energy-growth nexus: A panel analysis for ten Eurasian oil exporting countries," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 369-386.
    2. Juan Carlos Aquino & N. R. Ramírez-Rondán, 2020. "Estimating factor shares from nonstationary panel data," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 58(5), pages 2353-2380, May.
    3. Suleman Sarwar & Rida Waheed & Mehnoor Amir & Muqaddas Khalid, 2018. "Role of Energy on Economy The Case of Micro to Macro Level Analysis," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 38(4), pages 1905-1926.
    4. Ewing, Bradley T. & Payne, James E. & Caporin, Massimilano, 2022. "The Asymmetric Impact of Oil Prices and Production on Drilling Rig Trajectory: A correction," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    5. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Nasreen, Samia & Ling, Chong Hui & Sbia, Rashid, 2014. "Causality between trade openness and energy consumption: What causes what in high, middle and low income countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 126-143.
    6. Boris Hofmann, 2003. "Bank Lending and Property Prices: Some International Evidence," Working Papers 222003, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
    7. Olivier Damette & Mathilde Maurel & Michael A. Stemmer, 2016. "What does it take to grow out of recession? An error-correction approach towards growth convergence of European and transition countries," Post-Print halshs-01318131, HAL.
    8. António Afonso & Christophe Rault, 2010. "What do we really know about fiscal sustainability in the EU? A panel data diagnostic," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 145(4), pages 731-755, January.
    9. Acikgoz, Senay & Ben Ali, Mohamed Sami, 2019. "Where does economic growth in the Middle Eastern and North African countries come from?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 73(C), pages 172-183.
    10. Betty Daniel & Christos Shiamptanis, 2008. "Fiscal Policy in the European Monetary Union," Discussion Papers 08-11, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.
    11. Alexander Cotte Poveda, 2013. "The relationship between development, investments, insecurity and social conditions in Colombia: a dynamic approach," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 47(5), pages 2769-2783, August.
    12. Magda Kandil & Muhammad Shahbaz & Samia Nasreen, 2015. "The interaction between globalization and financial development: new evidence from panel cointegration and causality analysis," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(4), pages 1317-1339, December.
    13. Ömer Yalçınkaya & İbrahim Hüseyni & Ali Kemal Çelik, 2017. "The Impact of Total Factor Productivity on Economic Growth for Developed and Emerging Countries: A Second-generation Panel Data Analysis," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 11(4), pages 404-417, November.
    14. Akhmat, Ghulam & Zaman, Khalid & Shukui, Tan & Javed, Yasir & Khan, Muhammad Mushtaq, 2014. "Relationship between educational indicators and research outcomes in a panel of top twenty nations: Windows of opportunity," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 349-361.
    15. Manuel Ennes Ferreira & João Dias & Jelson Serafim, 2022. "Stock Market and Economic Growth: Evidence from Africa," Working Papers REM 2022/0228, ISEG - Lisbon School of Economics and Management, REM, Universidade de Lisboa.
    16. Wang, Kuan-Min, 2011. "Health care expenditure and economic growth: Quantile panel-type analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1536-1549, July.
    17. Touitou Mohammed, 2021. "The Relationship between Economic Growth, Energy Consumption and CO2 Emission in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA)," Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia, Sciendo, vol. 21(2), pages 132-147, December.
    18. NAPO, Fousséni, 2018. "Capital humain, productivité manufacturière et croissance économique dans les pays de l’UEMOA [Human capital, manufacturing productivity and economic growth in WAEMU countries]," MPRA Paper 89450, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 12 Oct 2018.
    19. Zahra Sheidaei & Mohammadnabi Shahiki Tash, 2014. "The Cumulative Effect of Human Capital on Economic Growth: Using Panel Data Method," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 17(52), pages 95-115, June.
    20. Diego Romero‐Avila, 2006. "Fiscal Policies And Output In The Long Run: A Panel Cointegration Approach Applied To The Oecd," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 74(3), pages 360-388, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation; Capital Accumulation; Economic Growth; Panel VAR; Import-Dependent Developing Economies;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • N1 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:29353. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.