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Conditioned Export-Led Growthhypothesis: A Panel Threshold Regressions Approach





This paper proposes a reassessment of the export-led growth hypothesis focusing on conditioning effects from countries initial level of GDP per worker, human capital stock, and exports share in GDP. For this purpose a panel threshold regression technique was applied over selected cross-country panel data, covering a broad sample of 72 countries and two sub-samples over the period from 1974 to 2003. Special attention was given to the 5-years data averaging procedure, using panel unit root tests, and to the variables measures choice, where a sensitivity analysis is proposed. Overall, the evidence reported favors the export-led growth hypothesis, where the relationship between exports and growth was showed to be not as trivial as linear specifications would indicate.

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Paper provided by ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics] in its series Anais do XXXVIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 38th Brazilian Economics Meeting] with number 049.

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Date of creation: 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:anp:en2010:049
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