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How does fiscal policy affect monetary policy in emerging market countries?

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  • Edda Zoli

Abstract

This paper analyses how fiscal policy affects monetary policy in emerging economies. First, it conducts a test for fiscal dominance, and finds that the evidence points clearly to a regime of fiscal dominance in the case of Argentina and Brazil during the 1990s and early 2000s, while for the other countries in the sample the results are mixed. Next, the paper evaluates whether monetary policy accommodates fiscal policy, by assessing whether fiscal variables enter significantly in the central bank's reaction function. The findings indicate that in the emerging markets under consideration the conduct of monetary policy is not directly affected by changes in real primary balances. Then, the paper explores another mechanism through which fiscal policy could affect monetary policy in an emerging economy, by looking at the impact of fiscal policy on country premium and exchange rates. The empirical analysis is conducted through an event study, assessing the impact of news concerning fiscal variables and fiscal policy, on sovereign spread and exchange rate daily movements in Brazil, during the period surrounding the 2002 macroeconomic crisis. The results show that fiscal events have significantly influenced sovereign spreads and exchange rates in that period. Furthermore, fiscal policy actions appear to have contributed to movements in the exchange rates more than unanticipated monetary policy manoeuvres. The findings also suggest that, at that time, fiscal policy might have pushed the economy into an equilibrium in which increases in the policy intervention rate were likely to be associated with a depreciation, rather than an appreciation of the exchange rate.

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  • Edda Zoli, 2005. "How does fiscal policy affect monetary policy in emerging market countries?," BIS Working Papers 174, Bank for International Settlements.
  • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:174
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. International Monetary Fund, 2008. "Fiscal and Monetary Anchors for Price Stability; Evidence from Sub-Saharan Africa," IMF Working Papers 08/121, International Monetary Fund.
    2. Djelassi, Mouldi & Essid, Lobna, 2012. "Le niveau des prix en Tunisie est-il déterminé par la politique budgétaire?," L'Actualité Economique, Société Canadienne de Science Economique, vol. 88(2), pages 231-256, Juin.
    3. Pierre-Richard Agénor & Luiz A. Pereira da Silva, 2013. "Inflation Targeting and Financial Stability: A Perspective from the Developing World," Working Papers Series 324, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
    4. Vladimir Tomsik, 2012. "Some insights into monetary and fiscal policy interactions in the Czech Republic," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Fiscal policy, public debt and monetary policy in emerging market economies, volume 67, pages 161-171 Bank for International Settlements.
    5. Janak Raj & Khundrakpam J K & Dipika Das, 2011. "An Empirical Analysis of Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interaction in India," Working Papers id:4504, eSocialSciences.
    6. International Monetary Fund, 2006. "Zambia; Selected Issues and Statistical Appendix," IMF Staff Country Reports 06/118, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Mahmoud Haddad & Sam Hakim, 2008. "The Impact of War and Terrorism on Sovereign Risk in MENA Countries," Working Papers 394, Economic Research Forum, revised 03 Jan 2008.
    8. Vladimir Filipovski & Taki Fiti & Borce Trenovski, 2016. "Efficiency of the Fiscal Policy and the Fiscal Multipliers – The Case of the Republic of Macedonia," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 1, pages 3-23.
    9. Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Duffy, David & Filis, George, 2013. "Stock market response to monetary and fiscal policy shocks: Multi-country evidence," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 754-769.
    10. repec:eee:quaeco:v:66:y:2017:i:c:p:21-49 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Pablo Mendieta Ossio & Hugo Rodriguez Gonzales, 2005. "Interacción de la política fiscal con la política monetaria en el MERCOSUR y países asociados," Revista de Análisis del BCB, Banco Central de Bolivia, vol. 8(1), pages 49-97, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary Policy; Fiscal Policy; joint analysis of fiscal and monetary policy;

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy

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